Numerical Weather Prediction Advances for a Growing Canadian Economy

地球的气候系统正在发生变化。 对加拿大人来说，不断变化的气候为经济增长提供了一个机会，以满足我们不断增长的人口的需要。 我们的研究重点是通过使用计算机天气预报来提高经济。数值天气预报（NWP）模式的计算机预报正在越来越多的预报应用中取代人类预报员。 在UBC，我们拥有NWP研究所需的工具：高性能计算集群，NWP程序和相关的专业知识。 每天我们运行一个集合的62个数值预报模式成员在真实的时间，我们联合收割机结合成几个短期（1至5天）和中期（6至30天）的预测。 这些预测使我们能够根据自然的每日天气变化来测试我们的研究，而不是专注于不具代表性的理想案例研究。 我们还使用这些先进的工具来教育下一代科学家。我们广泛的研究计划的重点是推进短期和中期NWP为加拿大经济的增长。 这包括改善交通（公路、铁路、航运）、天气相关灾害（洪水、泥石流、雪崩、风暴、森林火灾烟雾）以及加拿大西部等复杂地形上的清洁能源（水电、风能、太阳能、生物质能）的天气预报方法。我们建议：1）为NWP模式设计新的动力核心; 2）为山区地形设计新的NWP行星边界层参数化; 3）通过创建新的后处理方法来校正与NWP空间分辨率相关的误差，以减少山区关键位置的预报误差; 4）使用云计算平台优化NWP集合大小; 5）改进森林火灾烟雾影响空气质量的集合预报; 6）分析最近与天气有关的灾害，以提高理解和预测; 7）创建用于资源管理和洪水预报的水模型。意义：随着人口的增加，更多的加拿大人将：*1）争夺能源和水资源。 我们的NWP研究将使公用事业公司能够更好地将可变清洁能源整合到电网中，并提供清洁水。2)生活在边缘地理区域，如洪泛平原、沿海地区和陡峭的山坡。 我们在面对气候变化时改善天气相关灾害预测的工作将使加拿大人能够成为幸存者，并将使地方政府能够提供更好的分区和应急准备计划。3)空气污染是生活和商业的副产品。 我们改善空气质量预报的工作将支持加拿大人的健康，同时使工业蓬勃发展。

Earth's climate system is changing. For Canadians, a changing climate provides an opportunity for economic growth to serve the needs of our growing population. Our research focuses on enhancing the economy through the use of computerized weather prediction.*** Computerized forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are replacing human forecasters in more and more forecast applications. At UBC we have the tools needed for NWP research: high--performance-computing clusters, NWP programs, and associated expertise. Every day we run an ensemble of 62 NWP model members in real time that we combine into several short--range (1 to 5 day) and medium-range (6 to 30 day) forecasts. These forecasts allow us to robustly test our research against natural daily weather variability, rather than focusing on unrepresentative ideal case studies. We also use these advanced tools to educate the next generation of scientists.*** Our broad research program focuses on advancing short- and medium--range NWP for a growing Canadian economy. This includes improving weather-forecast methods for transportation (highway, rail, shipping), weather--related disasters (floods, debris flows, avalanches, windstorms, forest-fire smoke), and clean energy (hydro, wind, solar, biomass) over complex terrain such as in Western Canada.*** We propose to: 1) devise new dynamical cores for NWP models; 2) design new NWP planetary-boundary-layer parameterizations for mountainous terrain; 3) reduce forecast errors at key locations in the mountains by creating new post--processing methods to correct errors associated with NWP spatial resolution; 4) optimize NWP ensemble size using cloud-computing platforms; 5) improve ensemble forecasts of forest--fire smoke as affects air quality; 6) analyze recent weather-related disasters to improve understanding and prediction; and 7) create a water model for resource management and flood forecasting.*** Significance: As population increases, more Canadians will be:***1) competing for energy and water resources. Our NWP research will enable utility companies to better integrate variable clean-energy sources into the power grid, and to provide clean water.***2) living in marginal geographic regions such as floodplains, coastal areas, and steep mountain slopes. Our work to improve prediction of weather--related disasters in the face of climate change will empower Canadians to be survivors, and will allow local governments to provide better zoning and emergency--preparedness plans.***3) producing air pollution as a byproduct of life and commerce. Our work on improving air--quality forecasting will support the health of Canadians while allowing industries to thrive.