INSPIRE: Integrated Disaster Cycle Approach for Catastrophic Earthquake Impact Reduction

加拿大未来很有可能面临重大地震威胁。在加拿大东部，Charlevoix和西部魁北克地震带发生了破坏性地震，预计类似事件会再次发生。在加拿大西部，不列颠哥伦比亚省面临来自卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的重大地震灾害和相关的次生灾害（如海啸和液化）。加拿大居民、应急管理人员和企业特别关注的情况是，未来卡斯卡迪亚发生特大推力地震，沿着圣劳伦斯河（渥太华-蒙特利尔-魁北克市走廊）发生中等地震，这将产生大规模的多灾害级联，同时影响人口和建筑环境。Goda博士将通过实施创新的基于性能的多灾害工程方法，并认识到灾害风险管理的三个主要阶段：减灾，备灾，应对和恢复，为地震灾害开发综合减灾工具。该计划将通过解释多重灾害的物理原因，并通过评估缓解影响和增强建筑环境抗震能力的响应和恢复措施的有效性来解决连锁灾害（震动-海啸-余震）。这些工具使人们能够在整个灾害周期内采取新的办法，更有效地管理和减轻灾害风险。在今后5年中，重点关注以下短期目标：1）通过全面和一致地考虑与并发灾害过程有关的不确定性，为与地震有关的连锁现象制定综合的多灾害影响评估方法; 2）将多灾害方法应用于加拿大和全球其他地区，以评估针对连锁地震灾害和风险的减灾-备灾工作; 3）开发新一代基于风险的预警-疏散系统和实时风险预测方法以进行响应; 4）开发新的金融风险转移对策以进行恢复。目标1构成了INSPIRE的核心创新，目标2 - 4是如何应用开发的工具为当前灾难性地震风险背景下的挑战提供创新解决方案的范例。新的评估工具将改进目前编制地震和海啸灾害地图的做法，这些地图是单独编制的，并以不同的方法、数据、假设和情景为基础。它们还将用于设计新的预警和快速风险预测系统以及金融风险转移工具，以加强家庭、市政当局和保险公司的地震防备和复原力。最终，该计划将使用一致的多灾害地图和评估来促进更强大的自然灾害风险管理，这些地图和评估对应于同一套地震情景和风险融资对策。

Canada has a high likelihood of facing significant earthquake threats in future. In Eastern Canada, damaging earthquakes occurred in the Charlevoix and Western Quebec seismic zones and recurrence of similar events is anticipated. In Western Canada, British Columbia is exposed to major seismic hazards and related secondary hazards (e.g. tsunami and liquefaction), originating from the Cascadia subduction zone. Scenarios of particular concern to Canadian residents, emergency managers and businesses are the future occurrences of a mega-thrust earthquake in Cascadia and a moderate earthquake along St Lawrence River (Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor), which will generate large-scale multi-hazard cascades and affect the population and built environment simultaneously.***Dr Goda will develop integrated disaster risk reduction tools for earthquake catastrophes by implementing innovative performance-based multi-hazard engineering methods and recognizing three main phases of disaster risk management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The program will address cascading hazards (shaking-tsunami-aftershocks) by accounting for physical causes of the multi-hazards and by evaluating the effectiveness of response and recovery measures for mitigating impacts and enhancing seismic resilience of built environments. The tools enable new approaches for more efficient disaster risk management and mitigation over the entire disaster cycle.***Over the next 5 years, the following short-term objectives are focused upon: 1) develop an integrated multi-hazard impact assessment methodology for cascading earthquake-related phenomena by accounting for uncertainties associated with concurrent hazard processes comprehensively and consistently; 2) apply the multi-hazard method to Canada and other global regions for assessing mitigation-preparedness against cascading seismic hazards and risks; 3) develop a new generation of risk-based early warning-evacuation systems and real-time risk forecasting methods for response, and 4) develop new financial risk transfer countermeasures for recovery. Obj. 1 constitutes the core innovation of INSPIRE, and Obj. 2-4 are the exemplars of how the developed tools can be applied to provide innovative solutions to current challenges in the context of catastrophic earthquake risk.***The new assessment tools will improve current practices of preparing shaking and tsunami hazard maps, which are developed separately and are based on different methods, data, assumptions, and scenarios. They will also be used to design new early warning and rapid risk forecasting systems and financial risk transfer instrument to enhance the seismic preparedness and resilience of households, municipalities, and insurers. Ultimately, this program will promote more robust natural disaster risk management using consistent multi-hazard maps and assessments that correspond to the same set of earthquake scenarios and risk financing countermeasures.**