Variation in natural selection, population demography and individual life history in insular plant and bird populations

环境变化是对本地物种和生态系统保护的主要威胁，但这些变化通过多种途径起作用，并在进化时间尺度上相互作用，因此需要对个体和种群进行详细、长期的研究来描述和解释。具体来说，1)气候手段和极端气候及其对适应性的影响，2)人类对栖息地类型或质量的直接影响，以及3)人类对群落成员或主导地位的间接影响正在全球几乎所有地区进行。然而，这些变化对个别物种的持久性或环境产品和服务的生产的长期影响仍然高度不确定。识别和解开环境变化对管理和非管理鸟类、哺乳动物和植物种群的影响一直是我32年来工作的重点，因为这些因素可以驱动生态和进化变化以及物种的持久性。在本建议中，我将利用对已经监测了12-44年的动植物种群进行的两项杰出的比较和横断面研究，概述对现有理论的检验，包括：1)对一种自由生活的鸟类（鸣禽，Melospiza melodia）的遗传学、人口学和个体生活史进行了最详细的研究；2)对海雀（Plectritis congesta）的种群遗传学和人口学进行了研究，海雀是一种年生植物，我在不列颠哥伦比亚省、华盛顿州和俄勒冈州的300个种群中进行了研究。我在每项研究中的目标都是高度互补的，包括：1)确定人口统计变化的非生物和生物驱动因素之间的联系，以及2)利用这种理解来预测持续的环境变化如何影响生活史进化、人口增长和物种范围限制。实现这些目标将从根本上有助于我们在未来管理和维护环境产品和服务方面的成功，并为应用于野生种群的人口统计学和进化理论的关键预测提供严格的测试。由于解决上述许多问题的共识和数据有限，我对表现型、基因型、生活史和自然选择的长期研究为在加拿大、苏格兰、瑞士和美国从事基础和应用生态学与进化界面工作的研究生和博士后提供了很好的机会。我的研究结果对于回答关于自由生活物种的生态学和进化动力学的高度复杂的问题应该继续有价值，这样做的成本非常低，并且有可能极大地改善对稀有物种的管理结果，否则就不可能详细研究

Environmental change is a key threat to the conservation of native species and ecosystems but these changes act via multiple paths and interact over evolutionary timescales, and thus require detailed, long-term studies of individuals and populations to characterize and explain. Specifically, change in 1) climate means and extremes and their effect on fitness, 2) the direct effects of humans on habitat type or quality, and 3) the indirect effects of humans on community membership or dominance are underway in virtually all regions of the globe. However, the long-term influence of these changes on the persistence of individual species or production of environmental goods and services remains highly uncertain.  Identifying and disentangling the effects of environmental change in managed and unmanaged bird, mammal and plant populations has been the focus of my work for 32 yrs, because these factors can drive ecological and evolutionary change and the persistence of species. In this proposal, I outline tests of existing theory using two outstanding comparative and cross-sectional studies of plant and animal populations already monitored for 12-44 yrs, including: 1) the most detailed study of the genetics, demography and individual life history of a free-living bird ever undertaken (song sparrows, Melospiza melodia) and 2) the population genetics and demography of Seablush (Plectritis congesta), an annual plant I have studied in = 300 populations across its range in BC, WA and OR. My goals in each study are highly complimentary and include: 1) identifying links between abiotic and biotic drivers of change in population demography, and 2) using this understanding to predict how continued environmental change may influence life history evolution, population growth and species range limits. Achieving these goals will contribute fundamentally to our success in managing and maintaining environmental products and services in future, and also offers rigorous tests of critical predictions in demographic and evolutionary theory as applied to wild populations. Because there is little consensus and limited data available to resolve many issues above, my long-term studies of variation in phenotype, genotype, life history and natural selection offer promising opportunities to graduate students and post-doctoral fellows working at the interface of fundamental and applied ecology and evolution in Canada, Scotland, Switzerland and the United States via my own and former student's labs. My results should continue to be valuable to answering highly complex questions about the ecology and evolutionary dynamics of free-living species, to do so at very modest cost, and to have the potential to dramatically improve management outcomes for rare species that are otherwise impossible to study in detail.**