Computational modeling and simulation of municipal waste generation and risk assessment during COVID-19

自2019冠状病毒病疫情开始以来，里贾纳市的城市固体废物产量出现偏差，而在此期间，里贾纳市及萨斯喀彻温省政府已采取控制措施。废物产生率的变化可能开始影响城市废物收集和处置服务的日常运作，以及固体废物收集和运营人员的安全。妥善的废物收集及处置对居民的健康及安全在任何时候都至关重要，更不用说在COVID-19疫情期间了。 我们的市政合作伙伴表示，在过去的几周里，废物数量的增加已经慢慢开始影响收入来源。该项目的目标是（i）对城市废物在爆发之前和期间的产生进行时间分析，以及（ii）为爆发期间和之后的废物产生制定各种情景和生成不同的预测模型。准确的废物数据预测有助于城市更好地管理其预算资源，并相应地规划其收集和处置服务。所提出的模型也将被用来估计环卫工人的个人防护服的需求。相信上述模拟模型对里贾纳等社会经济条件相似的城镇也有一定的借鉴作用。目前没有工具可以预测大流行期间和之后的废物产生，我们希望与里贾纳市团队合作，填补文献中的差距。拟议的模式将大大有利于城市保持其在可持续废物管理和循证废物政策方面的领导地位。 这也是感兴趣的城市，以协助在这一细分市场的增长，无论是在加拿大和国外。

A deviation in the production of municipal solid waste has been observed in the City of Regina since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic began, and during the time control measures were put into place by the City and the Government of Saskatchewan. The change in waste generation rates could begin to impact the daily operation of the City's municipal waste collection and disposal service, as well as the safety of the solid waste collections and operations staff. Proper waste collection and disposal is vital to health and safety of the residents at any time, let alone during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our municipal partner states that the elevated waste quantities has slowly begun to impact the revenue stream in the past few weeks. The goals of the project are to (i) conduct temporal analysis of municipal waste generation before and during the outbreak, and (ii) develop various scenarios and generate different forecast models for waste generation during and after the outbreak. Accurate waste data forecast helps the city to better manage its budgetary resources and plans their collection and disposal services accordingly. The proposed models will also be used to estimate the demand of the sanitation workers' personal protective wears. It is believed that the said simulation models will be useful to other cities and towns of similar socio-economic conditions as Regina. No tool is currently available to forecast waste generation during and after a pandemic, and we would like to work with City of Regina team to fill the gap in literature. The proposed models will be of great benefit to the City in maintaining its leadership in sustainable waste management and evidence-based waste policy. It is also of interest to the City to assist in the growth of this market segment, both within Canada and abroad.