Developing planning and forecasting tools for age-friendly rural and community transportation alternatives: a focus on volunteer driver programs to facilitate older person mobility and safety

这项拟议的研究计划将研究有组织的社区交通计划(如志愿司机计划)，为交通工程专业开发科学工具，以支持计划的规划、设计、运营和管理，以最大限度地提高效用，满足依赖汽车的老年人随着年龄的增长对安全和机动性的需求。预计到2056年，加拿大65岁以上的人口将增加两倍，家庭规模不断下降，这表明，随着老年司机向乘客过渡，“朋友和家人”无法满足他们未来的交通需求。社区交通项目提供了一个解决方案，但 围绕社区交通项目的知识通常是个案研究或轶事性质的。尽管对于这些项目在满足移动性需求方面的有效性、它们按地点获得成功的潜力、他们的 可伸缩性，以满足需求的增长，以及它们通过促进处于医疗风险的司机的过渡而对公共安全的贡献。我建议通过交通工程和规划的视角来研究基于社区的交通项目的正式部署。 我在未来5年的短期目标是为融入旅行开发一个基础 与社区交通项目子集相关的需求，特别是志愿司机项目，转化为交通工程和规划实践。我的四名MSCE学生将帮助我完成以下四个目标： A.制定一份全国性的志愿司机计划清单， 侧重于对其组织和业务属性进行鉴定和量化。 B.确定计划部署和可持续性的关键成功因素。 C.预测志愿司机计划的出行需求。 D.量化转移高危农村老年人的安全益处 参加志愿司机计划的司机。 这项工作的短期和长期结果将围绕社区交通系统创建一个知识体系，这些知识目前还没有以有意义或系统的方式存在。它将把社区交通替代方案的开发从传闻的运营开发和规划领域转移到交通工程领域，增加成功满足老年人对安全和移动性需求的可能性

This proposed research program will study organized community transportation programs (such as volunteer driver programs) to develop scientific tools for the transportation engineering profession to support program planning, design, operation, and management to maximize utility in meeting safety and mobility needs of car-dependent older adults as they age.  The expected tripling of the Canadian population over the age of 65 years by 2056, and declining family sizes, suggests that "friends and family" cannot satisfy future transportation demand of older drivers as they transition to passengers. Community transportation programs offer a solution, but the collective body of knowledge surrounding community transportation programs is often case-study or anecdotal in nature.  There is a lack of scientific understanding of these programs with respect to their effectiveness for meeting mobility needs, their potential for success by location, their scalability to meet growth in demand, and their contribution to public safety by facilitating the transition of a medically-at-risk driver.  I propose formalizing the deployment of community-based transportation programs by studying them through a transportation engineering and planning lens. My short-term objectives over the next 5 years are focused on developing a foundation for incorporating the travel demand associated with a subset of community transportation programs, volunteer driver programs in particular, into transportation engineering and planning practice.  Four MScE students will assist me with completing the following four objectives: A.Develop an inventory of volunteer driver programs that is national in scope, focused on qualifying and quantifying their organizational and operational attributes. B.Identify critical success factors for program deployment and sustainability. C.Predict travel demand for a volunteer driver program.  D.Quantify the safety benefits of transitioning a medically-at-risk rural older driver to a volunteer driver program. The results of this work over the short and long term will create a body of knowledge surrounding community transportation systems that currently does not exist in a meaningful or systematic way.  It will move the development of community transportation alternatives from the domain of anecdotal operational development and planning to the transportation engineering domain, increasing the likelihood of success in meeting older people's needs for safety and mobility