Seamless prediction and reconstruction of plant-water interactions in the boreal biome

我的DG计划的总体目标是提高我们预测和重建寒冷北方森林中水和碳循环之间动态相互作用的能力，时间尺度从几天到几千年不等。这将大大提高我们预测北方生态系统对水循环变化的短期和长期反应的能力。它还将为世界上最大的完整自然生态系统中生物圈、大气层和水圈之间存在的至关重要的生物物理反馈提供新的视角。我的团队将通过无缝整合时间尺度，水通量和生态生理过程，在一个单一的动态预测连续体中，在树木气候学领域取得重大飞跃。制定了三个互补的短期目标，每个目标都侧重于与不同时间尺度（天气（SO-1），气候（SO-2）和千年尺度（SO-3））相关的预测问题。SO 1将致力于预测水循环特性变化的短期响应。例如，短期事件如何影响森林的碳储存能力？这是一个重要的问题，因为虽然气候变化代表着一种长期趋势，但最大的反应通常是由极端情况（在我们的情况下是干/湿）引发的。为了阐明这些短期反应，我们将在每周的时间尺度上监测树木年轮中的生长和稳定同位素分馏，我们将使用基于过程的模型来模拟和预测观察到的变化。SO2将侧重于预测气候变化背景下北方森林的水碳循环反馈。由于水循环和碳循环是紧密耦合的，气候变化可能会影响其中一个或另一个，从而推动需要量化的复杂反馈和追溯。为了实现这一目标，我们将同时使用涡动协方差和树轮稳定同位素记录来约束大尺度碳-水循环相互作用的基于过程的建模。SO 3的目的是获得知识的千年变化的水文循环特性，如蒸散量，土壤含水量，降水量等，然后，我们将研究人类世的变化在水循环离开工业化前的条件，并将试图属性水文变化的外部和内部机制的强迫。 DG将提高我们在面对气候变化时预测北方水和碳循环之间的相互作用和反馈的能力。它还将提供一个原始的，动态的，多标量的角度来看，北方森林提供的基本生态系统服务的演变，脆弱性和命运：碳储存和通过蒸散减缓全球变暖。

The overarching goal of my DG program is to enhance our ability to predict and reconstruct dynamic interactions between water and carbon cycles in cold boreal forests, at timescales ranging from days to millennia. This will generate much-needed improvements to our capacity to anticipate both short-term and long-term responses of boreal ecosystems to changes in the water cycle. It will also cast new light on critically important biophysical feedbacks that exist at the nexus of biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere in the world's largest intact natural ecosystem. My group will make a significant leap forward in the field of dendroclimatology by seamlessly integrating timescales, water fluxes and ecophysiological processes, in a single, dynamic prediction continuum. Three complementary short-term objectives are formulated, each focussing on prediction problems relating to different timescales (weather- (SO-1), climate- (SO-2), and millennial-scale(SO-3)). SO1 will be dedicated to the prediction of short-term response to changes in water cycle properties. For example, how do short-term events affect the carbon storage capacity of forests? This is an important question because while climate change represents a long-term trend, the largest responses are usually triggered by extremes (dry / wet in our case). To shed light on these short-term responses, we will monitor growth and stable isotope fractionation in tree rings at a weekly timescale, and we will use a process-based model to simulate and predict observed changes. SO2 will focalize on predicting water-carbon cycling feedbacks in boreal forests in the context of climate change. Because water and carbon cycles are tightly coupled, climate change may impact one or the other, driving complicated feedbacks and retroactions that need to be quantified. To achieve this goal we will use eddy-covariance and tree ring stable isotope records simultaneously to constrain process-based modelling of large scale carbon-water cycle interactions. SO3 will aim at gaining knowledge on the millennial variability of hydrological cycle properties such as evapotranspiration, soil water content, precipitation, etc. We will then examine how Anthropocene changes in the water cycle depart from pre-industrial conditions and will attempt to attribute hydrological variability to external and internal mechanisms of forcing. The DG will enhance our capacity to forecast interactions and feedbacks between boreal water and carbon cycles in the face of climate change. It will also provide an original, dynamic, multi-scalar perspective on the evolution, vulnerability and fate of essential ecosystem services delivered by boreal forests : carbon storage and global warming mitigation through evapotranspiration.