Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons.
Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2013284118
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发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Ziska L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderegg WRL;Abatzoglou JT;Anderegg LDL;Bielory L;Kinney PL;Ziska L
人类引起的气候变化可能会影响呼吸系统健康，包括哮喘和过敏，通过温度驱动的空气中花粉的增加，但长期的大陆花粉趋势和气候变化在花粉模式中的作用尚不清楚。我们测量了1990年至2018年北美的花粉趋势，发现花粉浓度增加，花粉季节延长。我们使用一个气候模型的合奏来测试气候变化的作用，发现它是花粉季节长度变化的主要驱动力，也是增加花粉浓度的重要因素。我们的研究结果表明，人类引起的气候变化已经恶化了北美的花粉季节，气候驱动的花粉趋势可能会在未来几十年进一步加剧呼吸系统健康的影响。空气中的花粉对呼吸系统健康有重大影响，人为气候变化可能会增加花粉浓度并延长花粉季节。虽然温室和实地研究表明，花粉浓度与温度相关，但迫切需要对大陆花粉季节人为气候变化的作用进行正式检测和归因。在这里，我们使用1990年至2018年来自北美60个站的长期花粉数据，跨越821个站点年的数据，以及地球系统模型模拟，以量化人为引起的气候变化在花粉浓度大陆模式中的作用。我们发现，在整个北美，花粉季节（+20天）的广泛进展和延长以及花粉浓度（+21%）的增加与观测到的变暖密切相关。人类对气候系统的强迫作用对花粉季节趋势的贡献率为50%（四分位距：19-84%），对花粉浓度趋势的贡献率为4%-14%。我们的研究结果表明，在过去的三十年里，人为气候变化已经加剧了花粉季节，并对呼吸系统健康产生了有害影响。
Human-caused climate change could impact respiratory health, including asthma and allergies, through temperature-driven increases in airborne pollen, but the long-term continental pollen trends and role of climate change in pollen patterns are not well-understood. We measure pollen trends across North America from 1990 to 2018 and find increases in pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons. We use an ensemble of climate models to test the role of climate change and find that it is the dominant driver of changes in pollen season length and a significant contributor to increasing pollen concentrations. Our results indicate that human-caused climate change has already worsened North American pollen seasons, and climate-driven pollen trends are likely to further exacerbate respiratory health impacts in coming decades. Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19–84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4–14%) of the trend in pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Rodriguez D;de Voil P;Hudson D;Brown JN;Hayman P;Marrou H;Meinke H
通讯作者：
Meinke H
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Hansen, Gerrit;Stone, Daithi
通讯作者：
Stone, Daithi
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Kim, Kyu Rang;Oh, Jae-Won;Kim, Baek-Jo
通讯作者：
Kim, Baek-Jo
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Santer, BD;Taylor, KE;Tett, S
通讯作者：
Tett, S
检测并将健康负担归因于气候变化。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Ebi KL;Ogden NH;Semenza JC;Woodward A
通讯作者：
Woodward A