A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.
A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2017.0298
复制
发表时间：
2018-06-13
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hall JW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dawson RJ;Thompson D;Johns D;Wood R;Darch G;Chapman L;Hughes PN;Watson GVR;Paulson K;Bell S;Gosling SN;Powrie W;Hall JW
极端天气破坏和扰乱了支撑现代社会的基础设施服务，从而造成严重的不利社会经济影响。在全球范围内，每年在基础设施上的支出为2.5万亿美元，这些基础设施的设计通常持续数十年，在这段时间内，预计气候变化将改变基础设施的性能。已经制定了一种系统办法来评估所有基础设施部门的风险，以指导国家决策和适应投资。该方法分析气候风险和适应行动的各种证据，以评估所需适应的紧迫性和程度。在英国的应用表明，尽管最近做出了适应努力，但基础设施面临的风险大于机遇。洪水是所有基础设施部门面临的最大风险：即使《巴黎协定》将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，依赖电力基础设施的用户数量也将翻一番，而4摄氏度的上升可能会使英国的洪水损失增加两倍。其他风险也很大，例如，在全球变暖2摄氏度和4摄氏度的情况下，5%和20%的河流集水区将无法满足水需求。基础设施系统之间日益增加的相互依赖，特别是能源和信息和通信技术之间的相互依赖，正在放大风险，但由于缺乏明确的责任，适应行动受到限制。迫切需要一项建设国家能力的方案，以改进基础设施风险评估。本文是“气候变化适应政策风险评估进展”主题的一部分。
Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Andersson, Anna K.;Chapman, Lee
通讯作者：
Chapman, Lee
DOI：
10.1680/jmuen.15.00004
发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Affleck, Arthur;Gibbon, Jane
通讯作者：
Gibbon, Jane
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dawson, Richard J.
通讯作者：
Dawson, Richard J.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Chang, Stephanie E.;McDaniels, Timothy L.;Peterson, Krista
通讯作者：
Peterson, Krista
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.005
发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Byers, Edward A.;Hall, Jim W.;Amezaga, Jaime M.
通讯作者：
Amezaga, Jaime M.