A Causal Analysis of Observed Declines in Managed Honey Bees (Apis mellifera).
A Causal Analysis of Observed Declines in Managed Honey Bees (Apis mellifera).
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DOI：
10.1080/10807039.2013.831263
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发表时间：
2014-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Menzie CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Staveley JP;Law SA;Fairbrother A;Menzie CA
欧洲蜜蜂（Apis mellifera）是一种非常有价值的半自由放养管理农业物种。虽然管理的蜂箱数量一直在增加，但越冬存活率下降，以及2006年蜂群衰竭失调症的发生，促使人们对蜜蜂的健康进行大量研究，以分离致病因素。召开了一个研讨会，在此期间，蜜蜂专家介绍了一个正式的因果分析方法，比较39个候选原因对指定的标准，以评估其关系，观察到自2006年以来，商业蜜蜂在加州杏仁产业的越冬生存能力下降。候选原因被归类为很可能、可能或不太可能;由于缺乏信息，几个候选原因被归类为不确定。由于时间限制，研讨会上没有完成全面的因果分析。在这篇文章中，提供的例子来说明这一过程，并提供初步的调查结果，使用三个候选原因。瓦螨和病毒被认为是存活率降低的“可能原因”，而营养缺乏被认为是“可能原因”。新烟碱类杀虫剂被判定为“不太可能”是存活率降低的唯一原因，尽管它们可能是一个促成因素。
The European honey bee (Apis mellifera) is a highly valuable, semi-free-ranging managed agricultural species. While the number of managed hives has been increasing, declines in overwinter survival, and the onset of colony collapse disorder in 2006, precipitated a large amount of research on bees' health in an effort to isolate the causative factors. A workshop was convened during which bee experts were introduced to a formal causal analysis approach to compare 39 candidate causes against specified criteria to evaluate their relationship to the reduced overwinter survivability observed since 2006 of commercial bees used in the California almond industry. Candidate causes were categorized as probable, possible, or unlikely; several candidate causes were categorized as indeterminate due to lack of information. Due to time limitations, a full causal analysis was not completed at the workshop. In this article, examples are provided to illustrate the process and provide preliminary findings, using three candidate causes. Varroa mites plus viruses were judged to be a “probable cause” of the reduced survival, while nutrient deficiency was judged to be a “possible cause.” Neonicotinoid pesticides were judged to be “unlikely” as the sole cause of this reduced survival, although they could possibly be a contributing factor.
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