Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability.
Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2015.06.006
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Sapkota A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiang C;Shaw KS;Upperman CR;Blythe D;Mitchell C;Murtugudde R;Sapkota AR;Sapkota A
沙门氏菌是全世界急性胃肠炎的主要原因。沙门氏菌病的模式与天气事件有关。然而，关于极端事件与沙门氏菌病风险之间的联系，以及这种风险如何对沿海社区造成不成比例的影响，缺乏数据。我们从马里兰州食源性疾病主动监测网络获得了沙门氏菌病例数据(2002-2012年)，从国家气候数据中心获得了天气数据(1960-2012年)。我们使用30年的基线(1960-1989年)开发了与极端温度和降水事件相关的暴露指标，并将它们与县级沙门氏菌病数据联系起来。使用负二项广义估计方程对数据进行分析。我们观察到极端温度事件每增加1个单位，沙门氏菌病的风险增加4.1%(发病率比：1.041；95%可信区间：1.013-1.069)。这种风险的增加在沿海地区比非沿海地区更明显(5.1%比1.5%)。同样，我们观察到与极端降水事件增加1个单位相关的沙门氏菌病风险增加5.6%(内部收益率：1.056；可信区间：1.035-1.078)，沿海地区受到的影响不成比例(7.1%对3.6%)。据我们所知，这是第一个经验证据，表明极端温度/降水事件--预计在未来几十年将更加频繁和强烈--在沙门氏菌病方面对沿海社区产生了不成比例的影响。适应战略需要考虑到这种不同的负担，特别是在沿海人口不断增加的情况下。
Salmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities. We obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002–2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960–2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960–1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations. We observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% Confidence Interval (CI):1.013–1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035–1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%). To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events—that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades—are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations.
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DOI：
10.1080/10643389.2010.534706
发表时间：
2012-04
影响因子：
12.6
作者：
Semenza JC;Herbst S;Rechenburg A;Suk JE;Höser C;Schreiber C;Kistemann T
通讯作者：
Kistemann T
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Haley, Bradd J.;Cole, Dana J.;Lipp, Erin K.
通讯作者：
Lipp, Erin K.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Scallan, Elaine;Griffin, Patricia M.;Hoekstra, Robert M.
通讯作者：
Hoekstra, Robert M.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Burkholder, K. M.;Thompson, K. L.;Patterson, J. A.
通讯作者：
Patterson, J. A.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Hohmann, EL
通讯作者：
Hohmann, EL