Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
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提高气候景观指标的可解释性：日本海洋保护区的生态风险分析
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13665
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
García Molinos J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
García Molinos J
保护工作力求保护大片陆地、淡水和海洋生态系统免受一系列威胁。随着气候变化日益受到关注，这些努力必须考虑到受保护的空间在面对气温变暖等未来变化驱动因素时的弹性。气候景观指标表明气候变化的空间规模和方向，有助于对生态系统内的潜在威胁和机会进行方便的初步评估，以便在无法获得生物数据的情况下为保护和政策努力提供信息。然而，除非在有意义的生态背景下，否则很难从纯粹的物理气候变化中推断出风险。在这里，我们的目标是建立这种情况下，使用历史的气候变化，作为当地适应居民生物群的代理，以确定目前的当地气候条件将继续存在和未来的区域气候类似物将出现的地区。然后，这些信息与控制物种气候驱动的范围边缘动态的过程有关，将当地气候条件的变化作为物种范围收缩的促进因素与邻近地区促进范围扩张的因素区分开来。我们应用这种方法来评估未来的气候稳定性和日本沃茨及其海洋保护区（MPAs）网络的连通性。我们发现，到2035年，88%的日本沃茨将过渡到其历史变化范围之外的气候，从而导致可用气候空间的大量减少，可能会促进广泛的范围收缩和扩张。由于日本列岛的纬度梯度及其洋流系统的强大作用，沿沿着部分海岸存在着高度连通性的地区，气候变化在这些地区交汇。虽然这些地区与目前受到重大人为压力的地区有很大的重叠，但它们也包括大部分MPA网络，这些网络可能为由于气候变化而必须改变分布的物种提供垫脚石保护。
Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
S. Takao;H. Yamano;Kaoru Sugihara;N. Kumagai;M. Fujii;Yasuhiro Yamanaka
通讯作者：
Yasuhiro Yamanaka
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough
DOI：
10.3755/galaxea.13.11
发表时间：
2011-12
期刊：
Galaxea, Journal of Coral Reef Studies
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yumiko Yara;K. Oshima;M. Fujii;H. Yamano;Y. Yamanaka;N. Okada
通讯作者：
Yumiko Yara;K. Oshima;M. Fujii;H. Yamano;Y. Yamanaka;N. Okada
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Takehisa Yamakita;Hiroyuki Yamamoto;M. Nakaoka;H. Yamano;K. Fujikura;K. Hidaka;Y. Hirota;T. Ichikawa;S. Kakehi;Takahiko Kameda;S. Kitajima;K. Kogure;T. Komatsu;N. Kumagai;H. Miyamoto;K. Miyashita;H. Morimoto;R. Nakajima;S. Nishida;Kou Nishiuchi;S. Sakamoto;Masayoshi Sano;K. Sudo;H. Sugisaki;K. Tadokoro;Katsuhiko Tanaka;Yoshie Jintsu-Uchifune;Kentaro Watanabe;H. Watanabe;Yumiko Yara;N. Yotsukura;Y. Shirayama
通讯作者：
Takehisa Yamakita;Hiroyuki Yamamoto;M. Nakaoka;H. Yamano;K. Fujikura;K. Hidaka;Y. Hirota;T. Ichikawa;S. Kakehi;Takahiko Kameda;S. Kitajima;K. Kogure;T. Komatsu;N. Kumagai;H. Miyamoto;K. Miyashita;H. Morimoto;R. Nakajima;S. Nishida;Kou Nishiuchi;S. Sakamoto;Masayoshi Sano;K. Sudo;H. Sugisaki;K. Tadokoro;Katsuhiko Tanaka;Yoshie Jintsu-Uchifune;Kentaro Watanabe;H. Watanabe;Yumiko Yara;N. Yotsukura;Y. Shirayama
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0908503107
发表时间：
2010-10-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halpern, Benjamin S.;Lester, Sarah E.;McLeod, Karen L.
通讯作者：
McLeod, Karen L.