Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals.
Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals.
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宿主和病毒特征预测哺乳动物的人畜共患溢出。
DOI：
10.1038/nature22975
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发表时间：
2017-06-29
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Daszak P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olival KJ;Hosseini PR;Zambrana-Torrelio C;Ross N;Bogich TL;Daszak P
对哺乳动物宿主-病毒关系的综合数据库的分析表明，感染给定物种的病毒总数和可能是人畜共患病的比例都是可预测的，这使得能够识别可能发现新型人畜共患病的哺乳动物物种和地理位置。人畜共患病毒，许多起源于野生哺乳动物，对全球公共卫生构成严重威胁。Peter Daszak及其同事创建了一个哺乳动物宿主-病毒关系的综合数据库，他们分析该数据库以确定病毒和人畜共患病病毒在哺乳动物中的分布模式。他们确定了影响感染特定物种的病毒数量和多样性的各种因素，以及预测每个物种的人畜共患病病毒比例的因素。在此过程中，他们确定哺乳动物物种和地理位置，在新的人畜共患病可能会发现。这篇文章的在线版本（doi：10.1038/nature 22975）包含补充材料，这是提供给授权用户。大多数人类新出现的传染病是人畜共患疾病，特别令人关切的是源自野生哺乳动物的病毒（例如艾滋病毒、埃博拉病毒和SARS）。因此，了解野生动物中病毒多样性的模式和成功跨物种传播或溢出的决定因素是大流行监测项目的关键目标。然而，很少有分析工具可以确定哪些宿主物种可能窝藏下一个人类病毒，或者哪些病毒可以跨越物种界限。在这里，我们进行了全面的分析哺乳动物宿主-病毒的关系，并表明，感染一个给定的物种的病毒的总数和比例可能是人畜共患病是可预测的。在控制了研究工作之后，每个物种的人畜共患病病毒的比例可以通过与人类的系统发育相关性，宿主分类学和物种范围内的人类种群来预测，这可能反映了人类与野生动物的接触。我们证明，蝙蝠窝藏的人畜共患病病毒的比例显着高于所有其他哺乳动物的订单。我们还确定了估计数量最多的“失踪病毒”和“失踪的人畜共患病”的类群和地理区域，因此对未来的监测价值最高。然后，我们表明，系统发育宿主宽度和其他病毒特征是人畜共患病潜力的重要预测因子，提供了一个新的框架来评估新发现的哺乳动物病毒是否可以感染人类。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1038/nature 22975）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature22975) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Zoonotic viruses, many originating in wild mammals, pose a serious threat to global public health. Peter Daszak and colleagues create a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships, which they analyse to determine patterns of virus and zoonotic virus distribution in mammals. They identify various factors that influence the number and diversity of viruses that infect a given species as well as factors that predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species. In doing so, they identify mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature22975) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature22975) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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