International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence

国际经济周期：理论与证据

• 批准号: 8708395
• 负责人: Patrick Kehoe
• 金额: $ 8.98万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota Saint Paul
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-08-01 至 1990-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8708395&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: International; Business; Cycles; Theory; Evidence

This project improves our understanding of international business cycles. It provides new insights into the reasons American national output differs from fluctuations in Europe or Japan. It explains the relation between business cycles in different countries and between cycles and the dynamics of aggregate trade within countries. Dynamic stochastic equilibrium models have had considerable success recently explaining fluctuations in, and correlations between variables in single economies. The theoretical contribution of this project comes from developing multicountry dynamic stochastic models with heterogeneous agents. Most models of macrodynamics are based on a representative agent paradigm, but this assumption does not make sense for international economics because without heterogeneity across countries there is no trade. The project also introduces money into the model in order to examine the relation of the exchange rate to the behavior of money supplies and real variables. The theoretical work is paralleled by a systematic study of international time series data, looking first at correlations between detrended variables in particular countries, and second at correlations between like variables in different countries. Preliminary results suggest that business cycles in different countries have many features in common, but also point to a number of puzzles for the theory. For example, fluctuations in the net exports and output are negatively correlated. Consumption smoothing suggests exactly the opposite, as consumers export when their incomes are high and import when they are low. The project determines whether or not this puzzle can be explained by productivity-induced fluctuations in investment.

这个项目提高了我们对国际商务的理解 自行车. 它提供了新的见解的原因，美国国家 产出与欧洲或日本的波动不同。 它解释了 不同国家经济周期之间的关系以及 国家内部总贸易的周期和动态。 动态随机平衡模型已经取得了相当大的成功 最近解释了变量之间的波动和相关性 在单一经济体中。 该项目的理论贡献 来自于开发多国动态随机模型， 异质代理 大多数宏观动力学模型都是基于 代表代理范式，但这种假设没有意义 因为如果没有异质性， 国没有贸易。 该项目还引入资金 为了检验交换的关系， 利率与货币供应量和真实的变量的行为有关。 理论工作是通过系统研究 国际时间序列数据，首先研究 特定国家的去趋势变量，其次是相关性 在不同国家的相似变量之间。 初步结果 表明不同国家的商业周期有许多特点 共同点，但也指出了一些困惑的理论。 为 例如，净出口和产出的波动是负面的， 相关的 消费平滑的结果恰恰相反， 消费者在收入高的时候出口， 很低 该项目决定了这个谜题是否可以 这是由生产率引起的投资波动造成的。