The Maintenance of Stationary Waves in a General CirculationModel

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While it has long been postulated that stationary wave patterns in the atmosphere are predictable, it has never been satisfactorily demonstrated that this is the case. A comparison of simulations with a simplified version and a fully non-linear version of a general circulation model can be used to determine the potential predictability of stationary waves. This project focuses on examination of the causes for maintenance of stationary waves and their anomalies in the NMC General Circulation Model. The technical tools to be used are discretized, linearized models of the steady state response of the model atmosphere to specified forcing such as orography and heating. The project will provide for the first time a quantitative and definitive analysis of what causes stationary waves in the NMC General Circulation Model. This will lay the foundation for research on stationary waves in the real atmosphere as well as on the feasibility of dynamical extended range prediction.