Variability of the Climate System

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This project consists of a series of numerical experiments designed to increase understanding of the internal variability of the climate system. It is necessary to have accurate estimates of the internal variability in order to identify climate signals produced by external forcing. The experiment will employ state of the art but relatively low resolution climate simulation models. The main component for the initial experiments is an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with a realistic but non-interactive biosphere. A coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere model will used in the following stages of the investigation. The experiments will be integrations of the numerical models for periods on the order of 1000 years. The data produced by the integrations will be reduced and analyzed by a variety of statistical diagnostic techniques. The result of the experiments will advance knowledge of internal variability by using models that are in some ways better and that are run longer than in previous work. This project is funded under the NSF Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction initiative of the Global Change Research Program.