Variability of the Climate System

ATM-9520579施耐德，埃德温·K·金特，詹姆斯·L·全球环境与社会研究所标题：气候系统的可变性该项目由一系列数值实验组成，旨在增加对气候系统自然可变性的理解。有必要对自然变化进行准确估计，以确定外部强迫产生的气候信号，并评估气候预测。这项研究与TOGA和CLIVAR/GOGELS的目标有关，预计将对气专委/USGCRP作出贡献。拟议的研究将确定并执行一项实验程序，以隔离和估计大气、陆地和海洋过程对自然气候变异性的贡献。将研究的具体过程包括大气混沌、陆地表面的随机强迫、海洋混合层的随机强迫、海洋/大气耦合混沌、太阳强迫的年度周期。结果将通过分析几个长达数十年至百年的数值积分得到，这些积分是用一个数值气候模式的变体进行的。该模式的基本版本将包括全球大气和海洋环流子模式、包括植被影响的陆地表面过程和海冰。首先，确定完全交互耦合模式在模拟观测的年平均和年周期海表面温度时的误差。将对模型进行修改，以减少这些误差的幅度。将进行无通量修正的控制积分，以确定平衡气候。在随后的积分中，将限制组件子模式之间的相互作用，以消除或减少大气/陆地和大气/海洋的耦合。这些变化将以不同的组合形式引入，包括用特定的气候海面温度或混合层海洋取代动力海洋，指定气候土壤混合物和积雪，以及消除年度循环。受限模式模拟的气候学将是控制积分的气候学。结果与《自然》的相互比较将提供对大气/陆地和大气/海洋相互作用对模拟和实际气候变异性的贡献的估计。还将进行相关实验，研究通量改正和海洋初始条件在气候模拟和预报中的影响。通量修正程序引入的自然变率的变化将使用平衡模拟进行评估，在平衡模拟中，改进前的完整气候模式经过通量修正，以产生与控制积分相同的气候学。将进行一项实验，以估计由于不断变化的温室强迫而导致的当前气候偏离平衡的情况。

Abstract ATM-9520579 Schneider, Edwin K. Kinter, James L. Institute of Global Environment and Society Inc. Title: Variability of the Climate System The project consists of a series of numerical experiments designed to increase understanding of the natural variability of the climate system. It is necessary to have accurate estimates of the natural variability to identify climate signals produced by external forcing and to evaluate climate predictions. This research is relevant to the goals of TOGA and CLIVAR/GOALS and is expected to contribute to IPCC/USGCRP. The proposed research will define and carry out an experimental procedure to isolate and estimate the contributions to natural climatic variability from atmospheric, land and oceanic processes. Specific processes that will be examined are atmospheric chaos, stochastic forcing of the land surface, stochastic forcing of the ocean mixed layer, coupled ocean/atmosphere chaos, the annual cycle of solar forcing. Results will be obtained by analysis of several multi-decade to century long numerical integrations made with variants of a numerical climate model. The basic version of the model will include global atmosphere and ocean general circulation submodels, land surface processes including effects due to vegetation, and sea ice. First, the errors of the fully interactive coupled model in simulating the observed annual mean and annual cycle of sea surface temperature will be ascertained. Modifications to the model will be made to reduce the magnitude of these errors. A control integration without flux corrections will be carried out to determine the equilibrium climate. In subsequent integrations the interactions between the component submodels will be restricted in order to either eliminate or reduce atmosphere/land and atmosphere/ocean coupling. The changes, which will be introduced in various combinations, include replacement of the dynamical ocean with a specified climatological sea surface temp erature or by mixed layer ocean, specification of climatological soil mixture and snow cover, and elimination of the annual cycle. The climatology for the restricted model simulations will be that of the control integration. Intercomparsion of the results and Nature will provide estimates of the contributions of the atmosphere/land and atmosphere/ocean interactions to the modeled and actual climate variability. Related experiments will also be done to study the influence of flux correction and oceanic initial conditions in climate simulation and prediction. Changes in natural variability introduced by the flux correction procedure will be evaluated using an equilibrium simulation in which the full climate model before improvement is flux corrected to produce the same climatology as the control integration. An experiment will be done to estimate the departure of the current climate from equilibrium due to the changing greenhouse forcing.