Variability of the Climate System

气候系统的变化

• 批准号: 9520579
• 负责人: Edwin Schneider
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institute of Global Environment and Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-08-01 至 1999-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9520579&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Variability; Climate; System

Abstract ATM-9520579 Schneider, Edwin K. Kinter, James L. Institute of Global Environment and Society Inc. Title: Variability of the Climate System The project consists of a series of numerical experiments designed to increase understanding of the natural variability of the climate system. It is necessary to have accurate estimates of the natural variability to identify climate signals produced by external forcing and to evaluate climate predictions. This research is relevant to the goals of TOGA and CLIVAR/GOALS and is expected to contribute to IPCC/USGCRP. The proposed research will define and carry out an experimental procedure to isolate and estimate the contributions to natural climatic variability from atmospheric, land and oceanic processes. Specific processes that will be examined are atmospheric chaos, stochastic forcing of the land surface, stochastic forcing of the ocean mixed layer, coupled ocean/atmosphere chaos, the annual cycle of solar forcing. Results will be obtained by analysis of several multi-decade to century long numerical integrations made with variants of a numerical climate model. The basic version of the model will include global atmosphere and ocean general circulation submodels, land surface processes including effects due to vegetation, and sea ice. First, the errors of the fully interactive coupled model in simulating the observed annual mean and annual cycle of sea surface temperature will be ascertained. Modifications to the model will be made to reduce the magnitude of these errors. A control integration without flux corrections will be carried out to determine the equilibrium climate. In subsequent integrations the interactions between the component submodels will be restricted in order to either eliminate or reduce atmosphere/land and atmosphere/ocean coupling. The changes, which will be introduced in various combinations, include replacement of the dynamical ocean with a specified climatological sea surface temp erature or by mixed layer ocean, specification of climatological soil mixture and snow cover, and elimination of the annual cycle. The climatology for the restricted model simulations will be that of the control integration. Intercomparsion of the results and Nature will provide estimates of the contributions of the atmosphere/land and atmosphere/ocean interactions to the modeled and actual climate variability. Related experiments will also be done to study the influence of flux correction and oceanic initial conditions in climate simulation and prediction. Changes in natural variability introduced by the flux correction procedure will be evaluated using an equilibrium simulation in which the full climate model before improvement is flux corrected to produce the same climatology as the control integration. An experiment will be done to estimate the departure of the current climate from equilibrium due to the changing greenhouse forcing.

摘要ATM-9520579 Schneider，Edwin K. 作者：James L. 全球环境与社会研究所。 标题：气候系统的变化 该项目包括一系列数值实验，旨在增进对气候系统自然变化的了解。 有必要对自然变率进行准确的估计，以确定外部强迫产生的气候信号，并评估气候预测。 这项研究与TOGA和CLIVAR/GOALS的目标有关，预计将有助于IPCC/USGCRP。 拟议的研究将确定和执行一个实验程序，以分离和估计大气、陆地和海洋过程对自然气候变异的影响。 具体的过程，将被检查的大气混沌，随机强迫的陆地表面，随机强迫的海洋混合层，耦合海洋/大气混沌，太阳强迫的年度周期。 结果将通过分析使用数值气候模型变体进行的几个数十年至世纪的数值积分来获得。 该模式的基本版本将包括全球大气和海洋环流子模式、包括植被影响的陆面过程和海冰。 首先，确定全交互耦合模式在模拟实测年平均和年周期海表温度时的误差。 将对模型进行修改，以减少这些误差的幅度。 将进行不带通量修正的控制积分，以确定平衡气候。 在随后的集成中，组件子模型之间的相互作用将受到限制，以消除或减少大气/陆地和大气/海洋耦合。 这些变化将以不同的组合方式引入，包括用特定的气候海洋表面温度或混合层海洋代替动力海洋，气候土壤混合物和积雪的规格，以及消除年周期。 限制模式模拟的气候学将是控制集成的气候学。 将结果与《自然》进行比较，将提供大气/陆地和大气/海洋相互作用对模拟和实际气候变率贡献的估计。 还将进行相关试验，研究通量订正和海洋初始条件对气候模拟和预测的影响。 将使用平衡模拟来评估通量校正程序引起的自然变率变化，在平衡模拟中，对改进前的完整气候模式进行通量校正，以产生与控制积分相同的气候学。 将进行一项实验，以估计由于温室强迫的变化而导致的当前气候偏离平衡的情况。