Variability of the Climate System: Understanding Observed Low Frequency Variability of SST in the North Atlantic

本项目将采用一种新的全球气候模拟方法，研究20世纪后半叶北大西洋海表温度低频变率的原因。这项研究将建立和测试一个框架，使诊断观测到的变化可能首次在耦合的全球气候模拟的背景下。该模式是由“观测到的天气噪音”的表面通量，这是通过删除估计的强迫大气响应从总的表面通量，由国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心产生的再分析所代表的。耦合模式将利用交互式集合配置来过滤掉“天气噪音”从大气产生的通量和迫使海洋，同时充分模拟耦合的大气-海洋反馈。更广泛的影响：虽然这项工作的重点是局限于北大西洋地区，该技术可以结盟到其他地区，并用于解决一系列科学问题。该项目还将教育未来的气候科学家使用耦合大气环流模型研究气候。

This project will investigate the causes for low frequency variability of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature in the latter half of the 20th century by employing a novel global climate modeling approach. The research will set up and test a framework that makes the diagnosis of observed variability possible for the first time in a coupled global climate modeling context. The model is to be forced by "observed weather noise" surface fluxes which are derived by removing an estimate of the forced atmospheric response from the total surface fluxes, as represented by the reanalysis produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The coupled model will utilize the interactive ensemble configuration to filter out the "weather noise" from the fluxes generated by the atmosphere and forcing the ocean, while fully simulating the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.Broader impacts:While the focus of this work is confined to the region of the North Atlantic, the technique could be allied to other regions and used to address a range of science questions. The project will also educate future climate scientists in the use of coupled general circulation models for studying climate.