Variability of the Climate System: Understanding Observed Low Frequency Variability of SST in the North Atlantic

本项目将采用一种新的全球气候模拟方法，研究20世纪下半叶北大西洋海表温度低频变率的原因。这项研究将建立并测试一个框架，使首次在一个耦合的全球气候模式背景下对观测到的变率进行诊断成为可能。该模式将受“观测到的天气噪声”地表通量的影响，地表通量是通过从总地表通量中去除对强迫大气响应的估计而得到的，该估计由国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心的再分析结果表示。耦合模式将利用交互集合配置滤除大气和强迫海洋产生的通量中的“天气噪声”，同时充分模拟大气-海洋耦合反馈。更广泛的影响：虽然这项工作的重点仅限于北大西洋地区，但这项技术可以与其他地区联合起来，用于解决一系列科学问题。该项目还将教育未来的气候科学家如何使用耦合环流模式来研究气候。

This project will investigate the causes for low frequency variability of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature in the latter half of the 20th century by employing a novel global climate modeling approach. The research will set up and test a framework that makes the diagnosis of observed variability possible for the first time in a coupled global climate modeling context. The model is to be forced by "observed weather noise" surface fluxes which are derived by removing an estimate of the forced atmospheric response from the total surface fluxes, as represented by the reanalysis produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The coupled model will utilize the interactive ensemble configuration to filter out the "weather noise" from the fluxes generated by the atmosphere and forcing the ocean, while fully simulating the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.Broader impacts:While the focus of this work is confined to the region of the North Atlantic, the technique could be allied to other regions and used to address a range of science questions. The project will also educate future climate scientists in the use of coupled general circulation models for studying climate.