Variability of the Climate System

气候系统的变化

• 批准号: 9907915
• 负责人: Edwin Schneider
• 金额: $ 37.47万
• 依托单位: Institute of Global Environment and Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-10-01 至 2003-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9907915&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Variability; Climate; System

AbstractATM-9907915SchneiderThe project is designed to enhance understanding of the variability and predictability of the current climate, especially that associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on inter-seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. Since it is impossible to do the type of controlled experiments necessary to accomplish this goal in the actual global climate system, a coupled GCM (general circulation model) that simulates the observed climatology and variability realistically will be the basic tool for the investigation.The climate will be represented by a multi-century control simulation with an updated version of the COLA (Center for Atmosphere-Ocean Land Studies) global coupled GCM. The COLA coupled GCM produces a realistic simulation of many aspects of low frequency climate variability, including interannual and decadal El Nino/La Nina, and the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Arctic/Antarctic Oscillations. A series of experiments in which the GCM is modified will be made to help understand the mechanisms underlying the NAO variability found in the control simulation. These experiments will utilize the anomaly coupling capabilities of the GCM to allow one-way or fully coupled atmosphere-ocean or atmosphere-land interactions in localized regions, while specifying climatological boundary conditions elsewhere. The mechanisms that will be examined are local atmosphere-ocean coupling, local ocean dynamics, remote influence of tropical SST anomalies, coupled atmosphere-land processes, and the role of stochastic atmospheric forcing. The project has the potential to advance knowledge in several important areas. These are: 1) understanding low frequency NAO associated variability; 2) indicating whether this type of internal climate variability is or is not predictable; 3) evaluating whether internally generated climate variability is sufficient to explain observed variability over the North Atlantic over the last century, or whether alternative explanations must be sought; 4) developing and evaluating a new class of experiments to understand climate variability in coupled CMS.

摘要ATM-9907915Schneider该项目旨在增强对当前气候的变化和可预测性的理解，特别是与北大西洋涛动（NAO）相关的季节间到年代际时间尺度的变化和可预测性。 由于不可能在实际的全球气候系统中进行实现这一目标所需的受控实验，因此真实模拟观测到的气候和变率的耦合 GCM（大气环流模型）将成为研究的基本工具。气候将通过 COLA（大气-海洋陆地研究中心）全球耦合 GCM 更新版本的多世纪控制模拟来表示。 COLA 耦合 GCM 对低频气候变化的许多方面进行了真实的模拟，包括年际和年代际厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜，以及北大西洋、北太平洋和北极/南极涛动。 将进行一系列修改 GCM 的实验，以帮助理解控制模拟中发现的 NAO 变异性的机制。 这些实验将利用 GCM 的异常耦合功能，在局部区域实现单向或完全耦合的大气-海洋或大气-陆地相互作用，同时指定其他地方的气候边界条件。 将研究的机制包括当地大气-海洋耦合、当地海洋动力学、热带海温异常的远程影响、大气-陆地耦合过程以及随机大气强迫的作用。 该项目有潜力增进几个重要领域的知识。 这些是：1）了解低频 NAO 相关变异性； 2) 表明这种类型的内部气候变率是否是可预测的； 3）评估内部产生的气候变化是否足以解释上个世纪北大西洋观测到的变化，或者是否必须寻求替代解释； 4) 开发和评估一类新的实验，以了解耦合 CMS 中的气候变化。