Dynamic Models of Bounded Rationally

经济理论经常因为假设经济主体总是理性的而受到批评。但是，基于对个人决策方式更为现实的假设的经济理论并不是很有成效。这些“现实”理论的结果对智能体使用的决策规则的特定假设很敏感。该项目有望弥合传统理性选择经济模型与基于更现实决策规则的模型之间的差距。在这个项目中，启发式决策规则是由不完全信息下的个体理性行为产生的。本项目开发的动态选择模型预测的行为与观察到的行为一致，但结果严格地来自一般假设，并产生了有用的见解。这个项目有两个部分。在第一种模式中，研究人员研究了个体反复玩游戏、学习和实验的模型。大量的行为规则被证明是收敛于纳什均衡的。对个体行为的限制与各种纳什均衡的细化有关。这很重要，因为纳什均衡和纳什细化在数学上是易于处理的。该项目的这一部分可以为经济理论家研究有限理性的动态模型提供强大的数学工具。在第二部分，模型的发展，其中个人有一个普遍的偏好灵活性，因为他们知道有未来的突发事件，他们无法预见。动态博弈论和契约理论用于研究个体的选择，其中对灵活性的渴望随环境的变化而变化。这个项目应该得到支持，因为它对经济理论和决策理论的贡献。从方法论上讲，该项目应该为经济学家提供在不断变化的经济中建模动态选择的新方法。实质上，研究者在经济问题上的方法的应用，特别是他在项目的第一部分关于实验和学习模型的工作，应该为广泛的经济问题提供重要的新见解。

Economic theory is frequently criticized for assuming that economic agents are always rational. But economic theories based on more realistic assumptions about the way individuals decide have not been very productive. The results from these "realistic" theories are sensitive to specific assumptions about the decision rules used by agents. This project promises to bridge the gap between traditional rational choice economic models and models based on more realistic decision rules. In this project adaptive, heuristic decision rules emerge from individually rational behavior under imperfect information. Behavior predicted by the models of dynamic choice developed in this project conform to observed behavior, but the results are rigorously derived from general assumptions and yield useful insights. There are two parts to this project. In the first, models are studied in which individuals play a game repeatedly, learning and experimenting as they go. A wide class of behavioral rules are shown to yield convergence to Nash equilibria. Restrictions on individual behavior are related to various Nash equilibrium refinements. This is important because Nash equilibria and Nash refinements are mathematically tractable. This part of the project could provide economic theorists with powerful mathematical tools for studying dynamic models of bounded rationality. In the second part, models are developed in which individuals have a general preference for flexibility because they know there are future contingencies they cannot foresee. Dynamic game theory and contract theory are used to study individual choice where the desire for flexibility changes with circumstances. This project should be supported because of its contributions to economic theory and decision theory. Methodologically the project should provide economists with new approaches to modelling dynamic choice in a changing economy. Substantively, the applications of the investigator's approaches to economic problems, especially his work in the first part of the project on models of experimentation and learning, should provide important new insights into a wide range of economic issues.