Studies in Dynamic Economies with Boundedly Rational Agents

本研究将涉及四个具体问题。 （一） 面对不可预见的突发事件的选择公理模型 将发展，重点给予模型的动态选择 and choice选择in multiple多person人settings设置. 目标将是 建立代表理性偏好的公理， 决策者不确定未来的突发事件是什么， 可能的，更不会发生。 (2)有效的合同 将分析存在不可预见的意外情况时的表格， 强调双边关系契约将如何随着 各方对彼此的了解发生变化 偏好和未来的意外情况。 (3)意外或有事项对责任保险的影响 将研究，强调第二个最好的形式的责任 在有限责任法面前的保险。 (4)创建 不同情况之间的相似性概念， 使用廉价的谈话将被调查，其中一方只是 宣布一种情况与其他情况相似。 问题是 这种声明何时可信， 这种情况可以通过启发式学习过程自然出现。 这项研究的一个重要的一般主题，在 前三个主题比在第四，是个人如何适应， 均衡是在个体 不断面临着他们早期计划所面临的情况， 而不是预测。 这是一个全球性的标志，以及更多 地方，变化;个人，经济和社会如何适应 到一个规则和条件总是 改变？ 例如，我们应该如何面对 温室效应，在那里有诚实的争议， 各种行为（或不行为）的最终后果是什么？ 各国经济应如何构建其贸易关系， 在这种情况下，必须在以下两种情况之间做出明确的选择： 双边和三边或多边合同形式，以及 不同的国家正在不断地研究其 在不断变化的条件下，？ 一些 开发的工具和研究的范式形式， 该项目将有助于提供具体的答案， 像上面提到的那些问题。

Four specific topics will be covered in this research. (1) Axiomatic models of choice in the face of unforeseen contingencies will be developed, with emphasis given to models of dynamic choice and choice in multiperson settings. The objective would be to establish axioms that represent rational preferences when the decisionmaker is unsure of what future contingencies are even possible, much less which will occur. (2) Efficient contractual forms in the presence of unforeseen contingencies will be analyzed, emphasizing how bilateral, relational contracts will change with changes in the knowledge the parties have about each other's preferences and future contingencies. (3) The impact of unforeseen contingencies on liability insurance will be studied, emphasizing the second best form of liability insurance in the face of limited liability laws. (4) The creation of a notion of similarity between different situations through the use of cheap talk will be investigated, where one party simply declares one situation to be similar to others. The questions are when such declarations will be credible and whether such a situation can arise naturally through a heuristic learning process. An important general theme of this research, more apparent in the first three topics than in the fourth, is how individuals adapt and equilibria are constructed in contexts where the individuals are constantly confronted with situations that their earlier plans did not anticipate. This is a hallmark of global, as well as more local, change; how do individuals, economies, and societies adapt to an environment in which the rules and conditions are always changing? How, for example, should we proceed in the face of the greenhouse effect, where there is honest controversy as to what the eventual consequences of various actions (or inactions) will be? How should national economies construct their trade relations, a context in which there are clear choices to be made between bilateral and tri- or multi-lateral contracting forms, and the different countries are constantly working out the nature of their relationships in the face of changing conditions? Some of the tools developed and the paradigmatic forms of research employed in this project will be useful in providing answers to specific questions such as those posed above.