Inventories and Business Cycles in Major Industrialized Countries

主要工业化国家的库存和商业周期

• 批准号: 8911511
• 负责人: Kenneth West
• 金额: $ 5.73万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1989-09-01 至 1992-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8911511&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Inventories; Business; Cycles; Major; Industrialized

Economists have long recognized the important role for inventories in explaining business cycles. Abramovits, for example, argued in 1950 that inventories were a key factor for U.S. business cycles. A little later Mathews emphasized that business cycle turning points, especially downturns, are to a large extent accounted for by changes in inventory investment. Recently, this has been documented for the U.S. with up-to-date statistics, by Blinder in 1981 and Blinder and Holtz-Eakin in 1986. In an atheoretical accounting sense, over half the peak to trough fall in GNP in post-1929 U.S. recessions has typically been attributable to changes in inventory investment. No general agreement exists, however, as to why inventory investment is so pro-cyclical. This provides the motivation for the present research which seeks to integrate models of inventory behavior with theories of the business cycle. The role of inventories in business cycles will be evaluated using data from seven industrialized countries - Canada, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. - emphasizing the countries for which the data are best - Canada, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. The research will first consider how representative is the well-documented U.S. experience on the behavior of inventories over the cycle. It will then estimate structural inventory models, for aggregate economies as well as for two-digit manufacturing. Broadening the data used for inventory analysis to include those from countries other than the U.S. seems likely to help us discern general patterns, increase our power to discriminate between otherwise indistinguishable hypotheses, and sharpen our estimates of key parameters.The results should be of interest to a wide audience, not only "inventory" specialists.

经济学家早就认识到， 在解释商业周期中的库存。 阿布拉莫维奇，因为 例如，在1950年认为，库存是一个关键因素， 美国商业周期 过了一会儿，马修斯强调说， 商业周期的转折点，尤其是经济衰退， 很大程度上是由于存货投资的变化。 最近，这已被记录为美国与最新的 统计，由布林德在1981年和布林德和霍尔茨-埃金在 1986. 在非理论的会计意义上， 在1929年后的美国经济衰退中， 这主要是由于存货投资的变化。 没有一般 然而，对于为什么库存投资如此重要， 顺周期的。 这为本研究提供了动力， 将库存行为模型与 商业周期。 库存在商业周期中的作用将 使用七个工业化国家的数据进行评估- 加拿大、法国、西德德国、意大利、日本、英国。 和 美国-强调数据最好的国家 - 加拿大日本英国这项研究将首先 考虑一下有据可查的美国 对整个周期内库存行为的经验。 它 然后将估计结构库存模型，为总 经济以及两位数的制造业。 扩大用于清单分析的数据， 来自美国以外的国家似乎可以帮助我们 辨别一般模式，增强我们的辨别能力， 在其他难以区分的假设之间，并使我们的 关键参数的估计。结果应该是感兴趣的， 广泛的受众，而不仅仅是“库存”专家。