A Precautionary Demand for Savings, Liquidity Constraints, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesi:RUI Award

储蓄的预防性需求、流动性限制以及永久收入假设的检验：RUI 奖

• 批准号: 8921364
• 负责人: Catharine Hill
• 金额: $ 1.77万
• 依托单位: Williams College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-06-01 至 1991-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8921364&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Precautionary; Demand; Savings; Liquidity; Constraints

Many countries have experienced difficulties managing commodity export booms and fail to follow a savings path that is consistent with the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis. Having estimated the size of the booms and busts and then using these estimates to test the life cycle hypothesis for Botswana and Kenya, it appears that Botswana saves boom income, which is consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis, while Kenya does not. Among the questions suggested by these findings are: (1) Is there a precautionary demand for savings in Botswana, and can the findings for Botswana be explained by a precautionary demand for savings? (2) Can the results for Kenya be explained by liquidity constraints or by myopic behavior? The purpose of this research is to provide answers to these questions. Models will be refined and tested empirically in order to address these issues. The research is important because it will provide a clearer understanding of why countries respond to boom times the way they do and how public policy might mitigate the effects of commodity induced booms and busts in developing countries.

许多国家在管理初级商品方面遇到困难， 出口繁荣，未能遵循一个储蓄的道路， 生命周期-永久收入假说。 具有 估计了繁荣和萧条的规模， 博茨瓦纳生命周期假设的检验估计数， 肯尼亚，看来博茨瓦纳储蓄繁荣的收入，这是 符合生命周期假设，而肯尼亚则不符合。 这些发现提出的问题包括：（1）是否存在 博茨瓦纳的预防性储蓄需求， 博茨瓦纳的调查结果可以解释为预防性需求， 储蓄？ (2)肯尼亚的结果能用流动性来解释吗 限制还是短视行为？ 本研究的目的 是为这些问题提供答案。 模型将被细化 并进行了经验性的测试，以解决这些问题。 的 研究是重要的，因为它将提供一个更清晰的 理解为什么国家对繁荣时期的反应 以及公共政策如何减轻商品的影响 导致了发展中国家的繁荣和萧条。