Evaluating Probabilistic Alternatives for Unique and Multiple Occurring Events

评估独特和多次发生事件的概率替代方案

• 批准号: 8921864
• 负责人: Douglas Wedell
• 金额: $ 5.54万
• 依托单位: University of South Carolina at Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-04-01 至 1991-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8921864&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evaluating; Probabilistic; Alternatives; Unique; Multiple

Experiments have shown that people's evaluations of probabilistic outcomes do not conform to normative theory, especiallywhen they are asked to provide the probability that a single, isolated event will occur. However, there is evidence that people responddifferently when probabilities refer to unique rather than multiply occurring events. This project explores whether the observed discrepancies are tied to situations in which probabilities apply to events that occur only once. This work is important because it will provide information on the generalizability of the conclusion that decision makers generally violate expected utility theory when making actual choices. The study will investigate whether framing risky prospects as multiply occurring events induces a long run perspective that results in the processing of probabilistic information more in accordance with normative principles. Consistent with this hypothesis is recent evidence found by the investigators and others that some of the systematic violations of normative theory are reduced when subjects evaluate multiply occurring prospects. A series of experiments will beconducted to investigate people's responses to single and multiply occurring events. The first two experiments examine the impact of the option of multiple play on subjective utilities and probabilities. Another experiment looks at the question of whether opportunity for multiple play reduces framing effects. A final experiment will examine how experienced experimental subjects perceive probabilistic events ina financial audit context.

实验表明，人们对 概率结果不符合规范理论， 特别是当他们被要求提供的概率， 一个孤立的事件就会发生 但有证据 that people responses响应differently不同when probabilities概率refer参考to unique独特 而不是重复发生事件。 该项目探索 观察到的差异是否与以下情况有关： 这些概率适用于只发生一次的事件。 这项工作是重要的，因为它将提供信息， 结论的普遍性，决策者 一般违反预期效用理论时， 选择. 这项研究将调查是否框架风险前景， 多重发生的事件导致了一个长期的观点 这导致了对概率信息的处理 更符合规范性原则。 一致 与这一假设是最近的证据发现， 调查人员和其他人认为，一些系统的 当受试者的行为违反规范性理论时， 评估多重发生的前景。 一系列 将进行实验来研究人们的 对单个和多个事件的反应。 的 前两个实验研究了选择 主观效用和概率的多重博弈。 另一个实验研究的是 多重播放的机会减少了框架效应。 一 最后一个实验将研究如何经验丰富的实验 被试在财务审计中感知概率事件 上下文