Forecasting Elections-The Unified German Elections Market

预测选举 - 德国统一选举市场

• 批准号: 9022587
• 负责人: Robert Forsythe
• 金额: $ 2.1万
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-12-01 至 1992-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9022587&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Forecasting; Elections; Unified; German; Market

This grant, funded under the Small Grants for Exploratory Research Program, will study several elections markets in Germany for the parliamentary elections for a unified Germany, scheduled to take place on December 2, 1990. Markets will be designed to predict the outcome of the all-German election. The research will yield important insights into the operation of both markets and elections. From the standpoint of markets, it will be determined how successfully markets can forecast an unprecedented event and, in the case of East Germany, how successfully markets operate in a culture conditioned on a nonmarket economy. From the standpoint of elections, the impact of various campaign practices and events on the election outcome will be investigated. The cultural and institutional differences among East Germany, West Germany and the United Sates present unusual opportunities for comparative analysis of markets and election campaigns.

这项赠款由探索性研究小额赠款资助， 研究计划，将研究德国的几个选举市场 为统一的德国举行议会选举， 发生在1990年12月2日。市场将被设计为 预测全德选举的结果 这项研究将产生重要的见解， 市场和选举。从市场的角度来看， 将决定市场能否成功地预测 这是一个前所未有的事件，在东德国的情况下， 成功的市场运作的文化条件是， 非市场经济。从选举的角度来看， 有关选举结果的各种竞选活动和活动 将进行调查。文化和制度差异 在东德国、西德国和美国之间 对市场进行比较分析的难得机会， 竞选活动