Forecasting Elections-The Unified German Elections Market

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This grant, funded under the Small Grants for Exploratory Research Program, will study several elections markets in Germany for the parliamentary elections for a unified Germany, scheduled to take place on December 2, 1990. Markets will be designed to predict the outcome of the all-German election. The research will yield important insights into the operation of both markets and elections. From the standpoint of markets, it will be determined how successfully markets can forecast an unprecedented event and, in the case of East Germany, how successfully markets operate in a culture conditioned on a nonmarket economy. From the standpoint of elections, the impact of various campaign practices and events on the election outcome will be investigated. The cultural and institutional differences among East Germany, West Germany and the United Sates present unusual opportunities for comparative analysis of markets and election campaigns.