Dome Deformation and Structural Collapse at Merapi Volcano, Java

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This research provides for a systematic evaluation of the distribution and rates of deformation at Merapi volcano over the next two years -- a period during which a significant explosive eruption is considered likely. Deformation data will be interpreted in correlation with conventional telemetered seismic data obtained by the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia, and is expected to provide fundamental new information on Merapi behavior. An acceleration in the rate of edifice deformation preceding sector collapse, or of dome extension preceding dome collapse and generation of nuees ardentes d'avalanche, should be detectable, and may enable tests of the deformation and failure prediction method of Voight (1988a). Thus, this research will enable use of Merapi as a natural laboratory to both understand crucial volcano deformational processes, and to test and refine deformation monitoring techniques.