Materials Science Approach to Volcanic Eruption Prediction

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Most volcanic eruptions are preceded by measurable geophysical and geochemical changes although, even with such data, successful forecasts are rare. A new way of approaching the prediction problem is to draw a mathematical analogy between the terminal stages of material failure and the precursory behavior of a volcano as it builds towards an eruption. In this work, eruptions are described in terms of a fundamental law that governs failure; and from this law specific equations and rate-time plots can be derived which will be used to predict rock failure and the attendant eruption. The result is that "eruption windows" may be recognized earlier than by other methods, and with enhanced precision. This approach can be applied to landslides, earthquakes, dam breaks and other hazards related to material failures.