Targeting Exchange Rates: Theory and Evidence from the Recent Managed Float

政府经常针对宏观经济变量， 通过混合政策调整汇率和利率 影响浮动汇率的偶然干预。 下 例如，最近的管理浮动，货币当局允许 汇率在大多数时候都是由市场力量决定的， 只有在利率严重偏离目标时才进行干预 程度. 因此，《世界报》经常报道， 金融媒体认为，偶尔的政府干预似乎 影响私人市场交易者的预期， 面对这些事件可能带来的资本收益和损失。 如果这 在这种情况下，资产价格应该反映预期的干预措施， 目标利率。 本项目的目的是开发一个模型，用于分析 政府干预的影响，防止运动， 利率和汇率从目标水平。 分析 将显示如何感知偶尔的资本收益或 中央银行干预导致的损失可能会影响市场 交易. 该模型还将用于实证评估 当干预政策被用来 目标利率。 这项研究很重要，因为它将帮助我们 更好地理解目标汇率政策如何影响 市场对这些政策的看法，以及这些政策如何 反过来，人们的看法也会影响利率。

Governments frequently target macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates and interest rates through a mixed policy of occasional interventions affecting floating rates. Under the recent managed float, for example, monetary authorities allow exchange rates to be determined by market forces most the time, only to intervene as rates deviate significantly from target levels. Accordingly, it has been frequently reported in the financial press that occasional government intervention appears to influence expectations on the part of private market traders who face possible capital gains and loses from these events. If this is the case, asset prices should reflect expected interventions to target rates. The purpose of this project is to develop a model for analyzing the effects of government interventions that prevent movements in interest and exchange rates from targeted levels. The analysis will show how the perceived threat of occasional capital gains or losses induced by central bank interventions may influence market trading. The model will also be used to empirically evaluate the behavior of exchange rates when intervention policies are used to target rates. This research is important because it will help us better understand how policies of targeting exchange rates affect the market's perception of these policies and how these perceptions, in turn, affect rates.