Expert Judgment in Weather Forecasting: Reliability, Validity, and Amount of Information

天气预报的专家判断：可靠性、有效性和信息量

• 批准号: 9109594
• 负责人: Thomas Stewart
• 金额: $ 12.5万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-10-01 至 1994-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9109594&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Expert; Judgment; Weather; Forecasting; Reliability

This proposal examines the gap between what how well weather forecasters are expected to use additional information and how well they actually use it. The proposal specifically examines how that gap widens as a function of the amount and complexity of new information. The first study examines the effects on judgemental reliability and validity of automating information acquisition and information processing. The second study examines the validity and reliability of informatyion acquisition as a function of amount of information. The third study focusses on the reliability and validity of information processing. The fourth study investigates the interaction between information acquisition and information processing as a function of amount of information. The results of this research will contribute to our understanding of expert judgement in weather forecasting and other fields. It should have practical implications for helping experts make the best use of technology that increases the amount of information available to them.

这项建议审查了天气预报员预计使用额外信息的程度与他们实际使用这些信息的程度之间的差距。该提案特别研究了这一差距如何随着新信息的数量和复杂程度而扩大。第一项研究考察了自动化信息获取和信息处理对判断信度和效度的影响。第二项研究考察了信息获取作为信息量的函数的有效性和可靠性。第三项研究是关于信息加工的信度和效度。第四个研究考察了信息获取和信息加工之间的交互作用，它们是信息量的函数。这项研究的结果将有助于我们理解天气预报等领域的专家判断。它应该对帮助专家最大限度地利用增加他们可获得的信息量的技术具有实际意义。