Expert Judgment in Weather Forecasting: Reliability, Validity, and Amount of Information

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This proposal examines the gap between what how well weather forecasters are expected to use additional information and how well they actually use it. The proposal specifically examines how that gap widens as a function of the amount and complexity of new information. The first study examines the effects on judgemental reliability and validity of automating information acquisition and information processing. The second study examines the validity and reliability of informatyion acquisition as a function of amount of information. The third study focusses on the reliability and validity of information processing. The fourth study investigates the interaction between information acquisition and information processing as a function of amount of information. The results of this research will contribute to our understanding of expert judgement in weather forecasting and other fields. It should have practical implications for helping experts make the best use of technology that increases the amount of information available to them.