Effects of Base Rate, Environmental Uncertainty, Values, and Feedback on Accuracy and Performance in Selection and Detection Decision Making

基准率、环境不确定性、值和反馈对选择和检测决策的准确性和性能的影响

• 批准号: 0451850
• 负责人: Thomas Stewart
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-03-01 至 2009-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0451850&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Effects; Base; Rate; Environmental; Uncertainty

Many important decisions are based on cutoffs. For example, a doctor may suspect, but not be sure, that a child has an ear infection. The doctor's suspicion is a judgment based on the child's symptoms, and antibiotics will be prescribed if that suspicion is strong enough, that is, if it is above some cutoff. Other "cutoff" decisions are police deciding to arrest suspects, juries deciding guilt or innocence, airport security deciding to detain passengers, emergency managers deciding to evacuate a hurricane-threatened area, and personnel managers hiring job applicants. In each case, the decision to act or not is based on a judgment that must be made under uncertainty. Decisions can result in two kinds of error: acting when inaction is more appropriate or not acting when action should be taken. Such errors can be costly and can never be avoided entirely, but understanding their causes can contribute to reducing them.This project will investigate how people learn to make cutoff decisions when their feedback is limited. Feedback is limited when decision makers do not find out if they made the right decision. Often the decision itself eliminates the possibility of feedback. For example, personnel managers rarely find out if applicants not hired would have been good employees. The research will be conducted using a new laboratory procedure designed to simulate decision-making conditions. Important properties of decision making situations will be varied, including the amount of uncertainty, the probability that the event of interest occurs, and the costs and benefits of errors and correct decisions. This project will establish a new paradigm for studying an important class of decisions, will apply that paradigm to critical issues of human decision-making performance, and will potentially lead to methods for improving performance.

许多重要的决策都是基于截止值。例如，医生可能会怀疑，但不能肯定，一个孩子有耳朵感染。医生的怀疑是根据孩子的症状做出的判断，如果怀疑足够强烈，也就是说，如果它超过某个临界值，就会开抗生素。其他“截止”决定包括警察决定逮捕嫌疑人，陪审团决定有罪或无罪，机场安全决定拘留乘客，紧急情况经理决定撤离飓风威胁地区，以及人事经理雇用求职者。在每一种情况下，采取行动或不采取行动的决定都是基于必须在不确定的情况下作出的判断。决策可能导致两种错误：不采取行动更合适时采取行动，或者应该采取行动时不采取行动。这样的错误可能代价高昂，而且永远无法完全避免，但了解其原因有助于减少它们。本项目将研究人们如何在反馈有限的情况下学习做出切断决策。当决策者不知道他们是否做出了正确的决定时，反馈是有限的。决策本身往往排除了反馈的可能性。 例如，人事经理很少发现没有被雇用的申请人是否会是好员工。这项研究将使用一种旨在模拟决策条件的新实验室程序进行。决策情况的重要属性会有所不同，包括不确定性的数量，发生感兴趣的事件的概率，以及错误和正确决策的成本和收益。该项目将建立一个新的范式来研究一类重要的决策，将该范式应用于人类决策绩效的关键问题，并可能导致提高绩效的方法。