An Investigation of Judgmental Reliability

判断可靠性的调查

• 批准号: 9618210
• 负责人: Thomas Stewart
• 金额: $ 10.73万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-02-15 至 2000-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9618210&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Investigation; Judgmental; Reliability

An Investigation of Judgmental Reliability The proposal deals with the effects of the reliability of judgment (conceptualized as consisting of two parts--reliability of information acquisition and reliability of information processing) on judgment accuracy. The PI proposes a study of experts (radiologists reading mammograms) and a lab study that is a loose analog of radiographic diagnosis. The conceptual framework is an expanded version of Brunswik's lens model. The review of the literature shows that the topic of reliability has been neglected in the study of expert judgment, although it is known that there are individual differences in judgment reliability. The first study proposed would have 10 radiologists read a set of 100 mammograms twice. They would also judge a set of features of each mammogram twice to provide evidence about reliability of information acquisition. The second study is an experimental analog in which subjects are given visual cues or visual and numerical cues (such as age, etc.) which are probabilistically related to an outcome. Baseline and feedback trials will be given. Subjects will judge the outcome in some blocks of trials and will judge the cues in other blocks of trials. The criterion will be linearly related to the cues in all cases.

关于判断信度的调查研究 该建议涉及判断的可靠性（概念上包括两个部分-信息获取的可靠性和信息处理的可靠性）对判断准确性的影响。 PI提出了一项专家研究（放射科医师阅读乳房X线照片）和一项实验室研究，该研究是放射学诊断的松散模拟。 概念框架是Brunswik的透镜模型的扩展版本。 文献回顾表明，虽然专家判断的可靠性存在个体差异，但在专家判断的研究中，可靠性这一主题一直被忽视。 第一项研究提议让10名放射科医生阅读一组100张乳房X光片两次。 他们还将对每张乳房X光片的一组特征进行两次判断，以提供有关信息获取可靠性的证据。 第二项研究是实验模拟，受试者被给予视觉线索或视觉和数字线索（如年龄等）与结果相关的概率。 将提供基线和反馈试验。 受试者将在某些试验块中判断结果，并在其他试验块中判断线索。 在所有情况下，该标准将与线索线性相关。