Studies of Scientists' Uncertainty and Disagreement about Global Climate Change

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This project concerns scientists' judgments regarding the anticipated buildup of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists' judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made in spite of continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. Despite its importance, scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect has not been systematically studied. Relying on theory and methods derived from judgment research, the project will identify the critical elements that affect scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect. Scientists involved in greenhouse research will be surveyed, and specific "points of view" in the scientific community will be identified. Follow-up interviews of proponents of the various points of view will probe reasons for disagreements in critical areas. The description of scientific uncertainty and disagreement that is communicated to policy makers by normal channels will be compared with the results of this study. The study will result in an improved understanding of the roots of scientific disagreement about the greenhouse effect.