Studies of Scientists' Uncertainty and Disagreement about Global Climate Change

科学家对全球气候变化的不确定性和分歧的研究

• 批准号: 9011868
• 负责人: Thomas Stewart
• 金额: $ 7.5万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-07-15 至 1992-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9011868&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Studies; Scientists; Uncertainty; Disagreement; about

This project concerns scientists' judgments regarding the anticipated buildup of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists' judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made in spite of continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. Despite its importance, scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect has not been systematically studied. Relying on theory and methods derived from judgment research, the project will identify the critical elements that affect scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect. Scientists involved in greenhouse research will be surveyed, and specific "points of view" in the scientific community will be identified. Follow-up interviews of proponents of the various points of view will probe reasons for disagreements in critical areas. The description of scientific uncertainty and disagreement that is communicated to policy makers by normal channels will be compared with the results of this study. The study will result in an improved understanding of the roots of scientific disagreement about the greenhouse effect.

这个项目涉及科学家对 二氧化碳和其他“温室气体”的预期积累 在大气层中。 由于科学上存在重大差距， 了解温室效应，政策制定者被迫 依赖于科学家对气候变化速度的判断， 它的影响。 现在看来，重大的政策决定将 尽管存在持续的不确定性和分歧， 在科学家中。 尽管科学判断很重要， 关于温室效应还没有系统的研究。 基于判断研究的理论和方法， 该项目将确定影响科学研究的关键因素， 对温室效应的判断。 科学家参与 温室研究将被调查，具体的“观点” 将确定科学界的最佳人选。 后续行动 对各种观点的支持者的采访将探讨 关键领域的分歧。 的描述 科学上的不确定性和分歧， 政策制定者通过正常渠道将结果进行比较 of this study研究. 这项研究将使人们更好地了解 关于温室的科学分歧的根源 效果