Understanding Individual Differences in Judgmental Performance

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Abstract Stewart # 0078783 What is necessary for good judgment in uncertain situations? For any given judgment problem, some people perform better than others. This is true both for everyday judgments, such as a driver judging a safe speed or a consumer judging the quality of a product, and for professional judgments, such as a physician judging the severity of a child's illness or a weather forecaster judging the probability that a storm will spawn tornadoes. Are the differences in judgmental performance simply a result of differences in experience and training, or do they reflect differences in fundamental cognitive abilities necessary for good judgment? This study will examine three cognitive abilities and how they relate to good judgment: (a) intelligence (b) good statistical reasoning and (c) the ability to learn to use information accurately in new situations. Members of the local community and expert weather forecasters will be recruited to participate. For both groups, two everyday judgment problems will be used to measure judgment performance. In addition, the weather forecasters' professional judgment performance will be assessed based on their track record as forecasters and their performance on a new task. The data will be used to explore how judgmental skill in everyday and professional judgment tasks is related to other cognitive abilities. The study results will improve our understanding of what goes into accurate judgment. They will also contribute to the training of professionals and to the design of systems to support better judgment and decision making in uncertain situations.