A Study of Expert Judgment in a Natural Setting

这项建议的重点是天气预报员如何利用不完善的信息进行预测。调查人员被认为提供了不同寻常且适当的技能组合，以测试几个重要的理论问题，如专家如何评估信息质量，以及重要的应用问题，如如何使天气预报更可靠。该项目涉及两个实验，以专家天气预报员作为主要受试组，将(A)比较在有限信息条件下与全信息条件下作出的预测的准确性，以及(B)通过检查不同的天气预报员如何利用相同的有限信息库来测试信息获取的一致性和可靠性。使用业务天气预报员被认为是特别适当的，因为尽管气象专家经常被视为现实世界概率判断方面的杰出典范，但他们的决策过程以及他们根据不完全信息进行解释和推断的能力尚未得到彻底研究。其结果将是普遍感兴趣的，因为这是一项研究，研究专家如何利用不完整的信息，以及应该如何设计人机交互，以在信息有限的情况下为面临复杂预测需求的决策者提供帮助。

This proposal focuses on how weather forecasters make use of imperfect information in making predictions. The investigators were seen to provide an unusual and appropriate mix of skills needed to test several important theoretical questions about how experts assess the quality of information and important applied questions about how weather forecasts could be made more reliable. The project involves two experiments, using expert weather forecasters as the primary subject group, that will (a) compare the accuracy of forecasts made in limited vs. full information conditions and (b) test the consistency and reliability of information acquisition by examining how different forecasters make use of the same limited information base. The use of operating weather forecasters is viewed as particularly appropriate because, despite the fact that meterorologists often are viewed as the paragon of excellence in real-world probability judgments, their decision making processes and their ability to interpret and make inferences on the basis of incomplete information has not been thoroughly studied. The results will be general interest as a study of how experts make use of incomplete information and how human-computer interactions should be designed to provide assistance to decision makers facing complex forecasting demands under conditions of limited information.