A Study of Expert Judgment in a Natural Setting

这一建议的重点是天气预报员如何利用不完全信息进行预测。调查人员被认为提供了不同寻常的、适当的技能组合，以测试几个重要的理论问题，如专家如何评估信息质量，以及重要的应用问题，如如何使天气预报更可靠。该项目包括两个实验，使用专家天气预报员作为主要主题组，这将(a)比较在有限和充分信息条件下做出的预测的准确性，(b)通过检查不同的预报员如何利用相同的有限信息库来测试信息获取的一致性和可靠性。使用天气预报员被认为是特别合适的，因为尽管气象学家经常被视为在现实世界的概率判断方面的卓越典范，但他们的决策过程和他们在不完整信息的基础上解释和推断的能力尚未得到彻底研究。研究结果将引起普遍的兴趣，研究专家如何利用不完整的信息，以及如何设计人机交互，以便在信息有限的情况下为面临复杂预测需求的决策者提供帮助。

This proposal focuses on how weather forecasters make use of imperfect information in making predictions. The investigators were seen to provide an unusual and appropriate mix of skills needed to test several important theoretical questions about how experts assess the quality of information and important applied questions about how weather forecasts could be made more reliable. The project involves two experiments, using expert weather forecasters as the primary subject group, that will (a) compare the accuracy of forecasts made in limited vs. full information conditions and (b) test the consistency and reliability of information acquisition by examining how different forecasters make use of the same limited information base. The use of operating weather forecasters is viewed as particularly appropriate because, despite the fact that meterorologists often are viewed as the paragon of excellence in real-world probability judgments, their decision making processes and their ability to interpret and make inferences on the basis of incomplete information has not been thoroughly studied. The results will be general interest as a study of how experts make use of incomplete information and how human-computer interactions should be designed to provide assistance to decision makers facing complex forecasting demands under conditions of limited information.