Television Advertising in Political Campaigns: A Study of the 1992 California Senate Races

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Despite the huge amounts of resources invested in campaign advertising, little reliable evidence exists concerning the independent effects of advertising on electoral outcomes. This project applies a multi-method strategy to assess the impact of televised campaign advertising on the 1992 California Senate elections. Through the use of realistic "field experiments," the investigators assess the effects of particular campaign ads and particular pairing of ads. In these experiments, a representative cross- section of the Southern California electorate will be shown ads aired by the various senatorial candidates. Following exposure to the ads, experimental participants are asked a variety of questions concerning their political beliefs and preferences. This method permits estimation of the effectiveness of particular ads and particular advertising strategies on the behavior of individual voters. The experimental results are replicated using statewide polling data, an exhaustive analysis of every campaign ad aired by the field of candidates and interviews with campaign managers. Trends in voter preference, for instance, will be tracked across the course of the campaign in relation to the amount of televised advertising used by particular candidates as well as the content of advertising. In addition, following the election, the managers of each campaign will be interviewed so as to ascertain their advertising "game plan." The major areas of investigation concern the effects of broadcast advertising on voter turnout and voter choice. How does political advertising affect individuals' interest and desire to participate in the political process? Of particular importance is the impact of attack advertising on voter participation. Other areas under investigation include the relative effectiveness of "issue" versus "image" ads as a means of stimulating voter interest and formation. The investigators also assess the effects of advertising on candidate choice. Some of the important questions here include the differential importance of advertising in primary and general election campaigns, whether ads work differently among different groups of voters, and the degree to which the persuasive effects of ads are conditioned by patterns of news media coverage. This research will provide rigorous evidence concerning the effects of campaign advertising strategy on electoral outcomes in addition to the long-term impact of advertising on the democratic process.