Long-term Sustainability of Atlantic White Cedar Swamps in the Pinelands Biosphere Reserve

拟议的研究将确定几个生态终点 反映了大西洋白色雪松过去和现在的状况 松树地的湿地 2000 - 2001年的时间和地理趋势 大西洋白色雪松沼泽及其 与其他景观元素的空间关系， 描述，以及导致任何观察到的变化的因素 将被识别。 人类与大西洋白色雪松沼泽相互作用的模型 它结合了马尔可夫模型和社会模型， 经济因素将在一个 地理信息系统 使用这种模式， 反映不同机构政策的情景（例如，公共 土地管理，监管）和过渡概率将是 发展，以及每一种体制设想方案对 大西洋白色雪松沼泽的生态可持续性 评估。 其结果将直接应用于天然 资源管理和环境决策 地区

The proposed research will define several ecological endpoints that reflect the past and present status of Atlantic white cedar wetlands in the Pinelands. Temporal and geographic trends in the extent, size, and quality of Atlantic white cedar swamps and their spatial relationship to other landscape components will be described, and the factors responsible for any observed changes will be identified. A model for human interactions with Atlantic white cedar swamps that incorporates both a Markovian succesional model and social and economic factors will be developed within the context of a geographic information system. Using this paradigm, several scenarios reflecting different institutional policies(e.g., public lands management, regulation) and transition probabilities will be developed, and the effect of each institutional scenario on the ecological sustainability of Atlantic white cedar swamps will be assessed. The results will have direct application to natural resource management and environmental policy decision making in the region.