Long-term Sustainability of Atlantic White Cedar Swamps in the Pinelands Biosphere Reserve

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The proposed research will define several ecological endpoints that reflect the past and present status of Atlantic white cedar wetlands in the Pinelands. Temporal and geographic trends in the extent, size, and quality of Atlantic white cedar swamps and their spatial relationship to other landscape components will be described, and the factors responsible for any observed changes will be identified. A model for human interactions with Atlantic white cedar swamps that incorporates both a Markovian succesional model and social and economic factors will be developed within the context of a geographic information system. Using this paradigm, several scenarios reflecting different institutional policies(e.g., public lands management, regulation) and transition probabilities will be developed, and the effect of each institutional scenario on the ecological sustainability of Atlantic white cedar swamps will be assessed. The results will have direct application to natural resource management and environmental policy decision making in the region.