Mathematical Sciences: Measurement, Modeling and Prediction for Infrastructural Systems

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9313013 Karr The nation's physical infrastructure, in particular, surface transportation, is in urgent need of restoration, improvement and expansion. Economic resources are insufficient to address all aspects of the problem, so that rational evaluation of proposed responses is crucial. To this end, methodology must be deployed for measuring characteristic of infrastructural systems, modeling their properties and predicting their performance under various scenarios. The PIs select a set of key problems affecting transportation supply and demand: network modeling, an intrinsic issue for Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems, with specific attention to real-time route planning in current experimental programs in IVHS; materials properties, with a focus on the design and behavior of concrete pavement as well as fundamental links between performance characteristics and microstructure of concrete; and travel demand modeling that incorporates travel/activity behavior of individuals to enable detailed predictions of demand under various policy scenarios and, eventually, how the transportation network is affected. For the systems, we study statistics is the enabling technology for characterization and prediction. Through cross- disciplinary collaboration among materials, regional, statistical and transportation scientists, strategies for short-term solutions and longer-term improvements will be developed. The methods will be transferable to a wide range of transportation problems that rely on a combination of simulation models, laboratory tests and field performance data.