CRB: An Experimental Test of Minimum Viable Population Concepts

小行星9322576 在这项保护和恢复生物学研究中，PI将通过实验研究最小可行种群（MVP）概念，以定量评估其有效性和特定理论公式预测的精度。实验研究将使用实验室种群的大盆地卤虫（卤虫franciscana）检查MVP过程中的分层设计。首先，孤立的人口的持久性将被检查，只有人口随机性操作，然后与环境随机性。其次，集合种群动态将被检查：1）使用大量的组成种群，其动态是不相关的，提供移民（确定性动态），（2）然后使用有限数量的组成种群，其动态是不相关的，提供移民（随机动态），和3）最后使用自相关操作之间的动态组成种群。这个简单的实验系统允许比较观察到的平均持续时间和它们的概率分布与文献中MVP模型的预测。此外，卤虫自然发生在大盆地的小高盐泉中。这些简单的生态系统没有卤虫的竞争对手和捕食者允许外推实验室结果的自然系统。如果实验室的观察与MVP模型的预测和卤虫在这些小的栖息地的存在/不存在是在与实验室的预测一致，现有的MVP配方的有效性将被指示，加强其价值的保护管理。 最小生存种群（Minimum Viable Population，MVP）是保护生物学的基础概念之一，也是在保护管理和政策中进行种群生存力分析的主要原因。 现有的MVP概念的检查要么依赖于理论上的考虑或地理相关性与一些实验测试。此外，验证MVP的大多数概念都是定性的，而不是定量的。验证MVP的概念，在定量的方式是至关重要的，如果他们的使用是合理的，在有争议的领域的保护管理和政策，以及在回答更基本的科学问题的力量控制生物多样性的性质。 ***

9322576 Belovsky In this Conservation and Restoration Biology research, the PI will examine Minimum Viable Population (MVP) concepts experimentally to evaluate quantitatively their validity and the precision of predictions from particular theoretical formulations. experimental studies will use laboratory populations of the Great Basin brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana) to examine MVP processes in a hierarchical design. First, the persistence of isolated populations will be examined with only demographic stochasticity operating and then with environmental stochasticity added. Second, metapopulation dynamics will be examined: 1) using a large number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (deterministic dynamics), (2) then using a limited number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (stochastic dynamics), and 3) finally using autocorrelation operating between the dynamics of the constituent populations. This simple experimental system permits comparison of the observed mean persistence times and their probability distributions with predictions from MVP models in the literature. Furthermore, Artemia occurs naturally in small hypersaline springs in the Great Basin. These simple ecosystems without competitors and predators for Artemia permit extrapolation of laboratory results to a natural system. If the laboratory observations agree with the MVP model predictions and the presence/absence of Artemia in these small habitats is in agreement with laboratory predictions, the validity of existing MVP formulations would be indicated, strengthening their value for conservation management. %%% The idea that there must be a minimum number of individuals in a population to ensure its persistence for a given time period with a given probability (Minimum Viable Population, MVP) is one of the cornerstone concepts of conservation biology and a major reason for Population Viability Analysis in conservation management and policy. Existing examinations of MVP concepts have either relied on theoretical considerations or biogeographical correlations with few experimental tests. Furthermore, most of the concepts to validate MVP have been qualitative rather than quantitative. Validating MVP concepts in a quantitative fashion is critical if their use is to be justified in the contentious area of conservation management and policy, as well as in answering more basic scientific issues regarding the forces controlling biodiversity in nature. ***