CRB: An Experimental Test of Minimum Viable Population Concepts

9322576 Belovsky在这项保护和恢复生物学研究中，PI将通过实验来检验最小可行种群（Minimum Viable Population， MVP）概念，以定量评估其有效性和特定理论公式预测的准确性。实验研究将使用大盆地盐水虾（Artemia franciscana）的实验室种群，以分层设计来检查MVP过程。首先，孤立种群的持久性将只在人口统计学随机性的情况下进行检验，然后再加上环境随机性。其次，将研究元种群动态：1)使用大量的组成种群，其动态不相关，提供移民（确定性动力学），（2)然后使用有限数量的组成种群，其动态不相关，提供移民（随机动力学），以及3）最后使用组成种群动态之间的自相关操作。这个简单的实验系统允许将观察到的平均持续时间及其概率分布与文献中MVP模型的预测进行比较。此外，阿尔忒弥亚天然存在于大盆地的小高盐泉中。这些简单的生态系统没有竞争对手和捕食者，允许将实验室结果外推到自然系统。如果实验室观测结果与MVP模型预测一致，并且这些小生境中Artemia的存在/不存在与实验室预测一致，则现有MVP公式的有效性将得到证明，从而增强其保护管理价值。一个种群中必须有最小数量的个体，以确保其在给定的概率下在给定的时间内持续存在（最小可行种群，MVP），这是保护生物学的基石概念之一，也是保护管理和政策中种群生存力分析的主要原因。对MVP概念的现有检验要么依赖于理论考虑，要么依赖于生物地理相关性，很少有实验测试。此外，大多数验证MVP的概念都是定性的，而不是定量的。如果要在有争议的保护管理和政策领域证明MVP概念的使用是合理的，以及在回答有关控制自然生物多样性的力量的更基本的科学问题时，以定量方式验证MVP概念是至关重要的。＊＊＊

9322576 Belovsky In this Conservation and Restoration Biology research, the PI will examine Minimum Viable Population (MVP) concepts experimentally to evaluate quantitatively their validity and the precision of predictions from particular theoretical formulations. experimental studies will use laboratory populations of the Great Basin brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana) to examine MVP processes in a hierarchical design. First, the persistence of isolated populations will be examined with only demographic stochasticity operating and then with environmental stochasticity added. Second, metapopulation dynamics will be examined: 1) using a large number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (deterministic dynamics), (2) then using a limited number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (stochastic dynamics), and 3) finally using autocorrelation operating between the dynamics of the constituent populations. This simple experimental system permits comparison of the observed mean persistence times and their probability distributions with predictions from MVP models in the literature. Furthermore, Artemia occurs naturally in small hypersaline springs in the Great Basin. These simple ecosystems without competitors and predators for Artemia permit extrapolation of laboratory results to a natural system. If the laboratory observations agree with the MVP model predictions and the presence/absence of Artemia in these small habitats is in agreement with laboratory predictions, the validity of existing MVP formulations would be indicated, strengthening their value for conservation management. %%% The idea that there must be a minimum number of individuals in a population to ensure its persistence for a given time period with a given probability (Minimum Viable Population, MVP) is one of the cornerstone concepts of conservation biology and a major reason for Population Viability Analysis in conservation management and policy. Existing examinations of MVP concepts have either relied on theoretical considerations or biogeographical correlations with few experimental tests. Furthermore, most of the concepts to validate MVP have been qualitative rather than quantitative. Validating MVP concepts in a quantitative fashion is critical if their use is to be justified in the contentious area of conservation management and policy, as well as in answering more basic scientific issues regarding the forces controlling biodiversity in nature. ***