Behavioral Determinants of Household Financial Decisions

现有的关于普通民众经济素养的证据对个人财务规划是现代经济理论所设想的高度复杂考虑的结果这一命题提出了严重质疑。很多人连最基本的经济计算都做不好，而且很少有人掌握更高级的概念，比如复利、风险回报权衡、通胀调整或实际保费与精算公平保费之间的差异，这些概念支配着生命周期分配问题的核心权衡。虽然可以想象，不成熟的人可以表现得好像他们做出了合理的明智的决定，但在个人财务规划的背景下，这是不可能的。因此，对经济知识、相关的发展经验以及金融信息和咨询来源的研究，应能在很大程度上阐明家庭财务决策，并应有助于设计旨在影响这些决策的公共政策。本研究由三个部分组成。第一部分分析了一项新的、独特的家庭调查数据，涉及人口统计、发展经验、金融信息/建议来源、经济知识和当前金融行为。对数据进行分析，以确定和量化发展经验、信息来源、知识和财务决策的决定因素。第2部分涉及后续调查的设计和初步分析。第三部分与弗吉尼亚大学的乔纳森·斯金纳（Jonathan Skinner）合作，使用收入动态小组研究（Panel Study of Income Dynamics）对经济脆弱性进行实证分析。特别是，该研究考察了退休前后的消费轨迹与积累财富之间的关系，以检验以下假设：观察到的退休后消费下降反映了有远见的计划，而不是认为这种下降是由于储蓄不足造成的。

The existing evidence on economic literacy among the general population casts serious doubt on the proposition that personal financial planning is the consequence of highly sophisticated deliberation, as envisioned in modern economic theory. Much of the population is ill-equipped to make even the most basic economic calculations, and few have mastered more advanced concepts such as compound interest, risk-return tradeoffs, inflation adjustments, or the difference between actual and actuarially fair insurance premiums, that govern the tradeoffs at the heart of the life cycle allocation problem. Although it is conceivable that unsophisticated individuals could act as if they make reasonably well-informed decisions, this is unlikely in the context of personal financial planning. Thus, the study of economic literacy, relevant developmental experiences, and sources of financial information and advice should shed considerable light on household financial decision making, and should aid in the design of public policies that are designed to influence these decisions. This research consists of three parts. Part 1 involves an analysis of data from a new and unique household survey on demographics, developmental experiences, sources of financial information/advice, economic knowledge, and current financial behavior. Data are analyzed to identify and quantify the determinants of developmental experiences, information sources, knowledge, and financial decisions. Part 2 involves the design and preliminary analysis of a follow-on survey. Part 3, which is joint with Jonathan Skinner of the University of Virginia, involves an empirical analysis of economic vulnerabilities, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In particular, the study examines the relationship between consumption trajectories, before and after retirement, and accumulated wealth, in order to test the hypothesis that the observed decline in consumption after retirement reflects farsighted planning, against the view that this decline res ults from inadequate saving.