Microeconomics of Political Economy and Policy Analysis

经济理论的最新发展使我们有可能比过去更令人满意地解决范围广泛的政策问题。这些发展包括讨价还价模型，风险下的最优决策和均衡，以及对拥有私人信息的个人的最优激励。本项目将这些模型应用于两个问题：(1)民主制度是如何产生的；(2)性别、生育率、教育和增长之间的关系，在理论和实证层面上都是如此。在过去几个世纪的大部分时间里，大多数经济持续增长的国家都是在那段时间的大部分时间里拥有某种民主制度的国家。这个项目的重点是这些国家稳定的民主政府和持续的经济增长之间的关系。人们对这种关系知之甚少。事实上，我们对民主制度产生的科学理解仍然是粗略的。这个项目扩展和评估（根据历史数据）调查人员关于议会制政府如何产生的新理论。这一理论强调议会制最初是如何作为对私人信息引起的统治者激励问题的理性回应而出现的。该项目的另一部分审查妇女地位与经济发展之间的关系，特别强调生育率和教育的作用。迄今为止，有几个经济模型研究了教育和生育选择及其对经济发展的重要性。然而，所有这些模型都通过研究虚构的、无性别的经济主体的行为而完全忽略了性别。但是，许多发展中国家和发达国家的经验证据表明，女性接受的教育比男性少。本项目建立了一个两性内生增长讨价还价模型，从理论和实证两个层面探讨了性别、生育、教育和增长之间的关系。

9410190 Green Recent developments in economic theory make it possible to address a broad range of policy questions more satisfactorily than in the past. Such developments include models of bargaining, optimal decisions and equilibrium under risk, and optimal provision of incentives to individuals who possess private information. This project applies such models to two issues: (1) how democratic institutions emerge and (2) the relationship between gender, fertility, education, and growth both at a theoretical and an empirical level. Most of the countries with outstanding records of sustained economic growth throughout most of the past several centuries are the same countries that have had some sort of democratic system throughout most of that period. This project focuses on the association between stable democratic government and sustained economic growth in these nations. This relationship is poorly understood. In fact, our scientific understanding of why democratic systems emerge at all is still sketchy. This project extends and evaluates (in light of historical data) a new theory by the investigators on how parliamentary governments emerge. This theory emphasizes how parliamentary systems can emerge initially as a rational response to the incentive problems of rulers caused by private information. The other part of the project examines the relationship between women's status and economic development, with particular emphasis on the role of fertility and education. Several economic models to date have examined education and fertility choices and their importance for economic development. However, all of these models completely ignore gender by studying the behavior of fictitious, genderless economic agents. But empirical evidence for a number of developing and developed countries shows that women receive less education that men. This project develops a two-sex bargaining model of endogenous growth and explores the relationship bet ween gender, fertility, education, and growth both at a theoretical and an empirical level.