Mesoscale Modeling of Precipitation in Coastal Regions of Complex Orography

复杂地形沿海地区降水的中尺度模拟

• 批准号: 9612876
• 负责人: Clifford Mass
• 金额: $ 37.45万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-09-01 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9612876&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mesoscale; Modeling; Precipitation; Coastal; Regions

9612876 Mass The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are jointly evaluating and supporting weather research of high priority to the USWRP. The distribution of precipitation along the west coast of North America is greatly influenced by the orography of the region, resulting in a complex pattern of enhancement on the windward sides of mountains and precipitation shadows to their lee. The importance of orographic modulation of coastal zone precipitation has been highlighted recently by a series of major flooding events in northern California and the Pacific Northwest that have resulted in losses in the billions of dollars and several deaths The objective of this proposal is to evaluate the potential of high-resolution regional atmospheric models for diagnosing and predicting orographically modulated precipitation along the mountainous coastal zone of western North America. Although current operational weather prediction models lack the resolution to correctly forecast orographic precipitation, a growing collection of regional model simulations suggests that with sufficient resolution, precipitation can be predicted realistically in coastal regions of complex terrain. If successful, high resolution modeling would offer improved precipitation forecasts and coupling their output to hydrological models could lead to more accurate prediction of stream flow, river stages, and flooding. This research effort will evaluate the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for a range of heavy precipitation/flooding events along the orographic west coast of North America. As part of this evaluation, experiments will be made to determine the resolution, model physics, and data assimilation methods r equired for producing the best possible regional model performance for coastal precipitation/flooding events. The model will be run both in real time to evaluate the long-term precipitation skill of the model at moderate (~10-15 km) resolution and for a series of retrospective case studies at very high resolution (down to 1-3 km horizontal resolution). These case studies will include California and Pacific Northwest heavy precipitation/flooding events and at least one case for southeastern Alaska. In addition to evaluating and improving the ability of high resolution atmospheric models to forecast orographic precipitation, this effort will also involve interfacing the model's precipitation, temperature, and wind fields with a watershed hydrological model. Such model coupling has the potential to greatly improve short- term forecasts of river height and flooding. Finally, this project will promote active interaction between the University of Washington scientists and National Weather Service forecasts offices in California, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska. ***

小行星9612876 美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项跨部门活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善向国家提供的天气服务。 根据该计划，国家科学基金会和国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）正在联合评估和支持USWRP高度优先的天气研究。 北美洲西海岸沿着的降水分布受该地区地形的影响很大，造成山区迎风面降水增强和背风面降水阴影的复杂格局。 最近，北方加州和太平洋西北部发生了一系列大洪水事件，造成数十亿美元的损失和数人死亡，这突出了地形对沿海地区降水调节的重要性。 诊断和预测沿北美西部山区海岸带沿着地形调制降水的大气模式。 虽然目前的业务天气预报模式缺乏正确预报地形降水的分辨率，越来越多的区域模式模拟表明，有足够的分辨率，可以预测降水实际上在沿海地区的复杂地形。 如果成功，高分辨率建模将提供更好的降水预测，并将其输出与水文模型相结合，可以更准确地预测水流，河流水位和洪水。 这项研究工作将评估一个高分辨率中尺度模式的性能，一系列强降水/洪水事件沿着北美西海岸的地形。 作为评估的一部分，将进行实验，以确定分辨率，模型物理学和数据同化方法r required产生最好的可能的区域模型性能的沿海降水/洪水事件。 该模式将在真实的时间内运行，以评价该模式在中等分辨率（~10-15公里）下的长期降水能力，并在非常高的分辨率（低至1-3公里的水平分辨率）下进行一系列回顾性案例研究。 这些案例研究将包括加州和太平洋西北部的强降水/洪水事件，以及阿拉斯加东南部的至少一个案例。 除了评估和提高高分辨率大气模型预测地形降水的能力外，这项工作还将涉及将模型的降水、温度和风场与流域水文模型相结合。这种模式耦合有可能大大改善河流高度和洪水的短期预测。 最后，该项目将促进华盛顿大学科学家与加州州、俄勒冈州、华盛顿和阿拉斯加州国家气象局预报办公室之间的积极互动。 ***