The Structure, Dynamics, and Expected Future Changes in Diablo Winds Over Central/Northern California

加州毁灭性的野火经常受到极端风力条件的帮助。在南加州，这些风包括著名的、被充分研究过的圣安娜风。在加州中部和北部有另一种下坡风暴，被称为“暗黑破坏神”风。“暗黑破坏神”风助长了许多野火，包括最近的2017年葡萄酒乡大火，造成44人死亡和数十亿美元的损失。尽管暗黑破坏神的风造成了严重的影响，但对这些事件的原因和气候学的详细研究相对缺乏。该合同将允许对Diablo风力事件进行详细描述，评估天气模型预测事件的技能，并评估Diablo风力事件在未来几年的预测趋势。这项工作的主要社会影响将是让天气预报员对他们预测这些事件的能力更有信心，这可能会使更多的预防火灾措施得以实施。首席研究员在外联方面经验丰富，并将继续开展活动，以便更好地向公众宣传科学研究的相关性。此外，该项目将有助于培养下一代科学家。这项研究将调查Diablo风的结构、演变和潜在的物理机制，Diablo风是发生在加利福尼亚中部和北部的强烈、干燥的海上风向风。该项目将涉及分析和建模方法。预期可交付成果的范围包括：1)全面描述了Diablo风现象，包括其结构、演变、动力和天气尺度流的控制；2)详细描述了Diablo风的气候学，包括其频率、持续时间、年度调节和过去70年的长期趋势；3)基于gcm驱动的动态降尺度高分辨率模式评估了Diablo风的频率、结构和振幅的未来趋势。4)评价了现有业务天气预报模式指导的预报技能，并对当前模拟系统在Diablo风现象方面的不足进行了评价。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Devastating wildfires in California are often aided by extreme wind conditions. In Southern California these include the well-known, and well-studied, Santa Ana winds. In Central and Northern California there is another kind of downslope windstorm which has been termed the "Diablo" winds. The Diablo winds have aided numerous wildfires including the recent 2017 Wine Country fires that resulted in 44 deaths and billions of dollars of damage. Despite the grave impact of Diablo winds, there has been a relative lack of detailed research on the causes and climatology of these events. This award will allow for a detailed characterization of Diablo wind events, an assessment of weather model skill in predicting the events, and an assessment of the projected trend of Diablo wind events in future years. The main societal impact of the work will be to give operational weather forecasters more confidence in their ability to forecast these events, which may allow more preventative fire measures to take place. The lead researcher is very experienced with outreach and will continue activities to better inform the public of the relevance of scientific research. In addition, the project will help to train the next generation of scientists.This study will investigate the structure, evolution, and underlying physical mechanisms of Diablo winds, which are strong, dry offshore-directed winds occurring over central and northern California. The project will involve both analysis and modeling approaches. The range of deliverables to be expected include: 1) a comprehensive description of the Diablo wind phenomenon, including its structure, evolution, dynamics and control by the synoptic scale flow, 2) a detailed climatology of Diablo winds, including their frequency, duration, annual modulation, and long-term trends over the past 70 years, 3) an evaluation of future trends in Diablo wind frequency, structure, and amplitude based on dynamically downscaled high-resolution models, driven by GCMs, and GCMs driving statistical models of Diablo wind occurrence, and 4) an evaluation of the forecast skill of operational weather forecast model guidance now currently available, and the appraisal of deficiencies in current modeling systems with respect to the Diablo wind phenomenon.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.