Doctoral Dissertation Research: Regions, Contexts and Political Changes in Italy, 1989-1996

该提案使用地理视角来考察意大利中部政治态度和行为的性质、形成和延续。重点是意大利左翼的两个主要政党，以及地方内部和地方之间发生的众多社会、经济和政治进程和相互作用的背景效应如何影响态度和行为。需要解决的主要问题是，在邻域效应和强迫场偏倚的概念背后是什么样的政治和社会机制和进程。这项研究将为识别和评价环境影响制定一个方法学框架。该研究将利用档案普查和选举数据来评估行为的主要空间效应。综合统计分析和回归模型将用于检查公社内部和公社之间存在的空间关系，以及每个公社选民的属性，以了解意大利中部的政治支持。将在20至25个社区进行调查和访谈，以便在地方一级比较社会进程和对政治行为的影响。这项工作将通过确定重要的有影响力的社会进程，为政治行为方面的背景效应理论作出贡献。此外，它还将提出一种检测、确定和评价这种影响的方法，这种方法可以在其他地方复制。

Shin, Michael U. of Colorado, Boulder This proposal uses a geographic perspective to examine the nature, formation and succession of political attitudes and behavior in central Italy. The focus is on two major parties of the Italian left and how contextual effects or the numerous social, economic and political processes and interactions occurring within and between places influence attitudes and behavior. The major question to be addressed is what political and social mechanisms and processes lie behind the concepts of neighborhood effect and forced field bias. The research will develop a methodological framework for identifying and evaluating contextual effects. The study will utilize archival census and election data to assess major spatial effects in behavior. Both aggregate statistical analysis and regression modeling will be used to examine the spatial relations that exist within and between communes, along with the attributes of the voters of each commune, to understand political support in central Italy. Surveys and interviews in 20 to 25 communes will be undertaken to obtain local-level comparisons of social processes and influences on political behavior. The work will contribute to a theory of contextual effects with respect to political behavior by identifying important influential social processes. In addition it will present a methodology that detects, identifies and evaluates such effects and which can be replicated elsewhere.