Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Localized Geographies of Kenyan Election Violence

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Political violence in many areas of the developing world represents a barrier against institutionalizing individual and group rights. Understood broadly, such rights include not only safety, but also freedom from encountering artificial obstructions to improving socio-economic status. Intercommunity trust is viewed as crucial for maintaining peaceful relationships between groups, and institutional trust is believed to foster engagement in civil society and the formal political sphere. Using Kenya as a case study, this project investigates 1) the spatial dimensions of political violence and 2) the aftermath of conflict on institutional and intercommunity trust. A recent turn in the field of conflict studies emphasizes local-level dynamics of group clashes that occur within broader episodes of violence, ranging from outright civil war to persistent skirmishes between groups contending for political representation or natural resources. Considering this paradigm shift toward fine resolution analysis, this research employs a mixed-methods disaggregated approach to understanding conflict and its impacts on Kenya's social fabric. First, spatial-statistical methods are used to identify patterns of conflict within Kenya surrounding the country's most recent election violence. Beyond anecdotal accounts of certain areas experiencing high rates of violence, the goal of these analyses is to identify any unexpected trends. Furthermore, the project will assess what party interactions and faction activities may have contributed to these uneven patterns within the country. To illustrate the impacts of violent conflict on Kenya's social fabric, this study includes survey research that is designed to elicit respondents perceptions of institutional and inter-group trust. Faith in national and local institutions is crucial for successful governance. Yet, this form of trust can be limited by the uneven provision of public goods, including security, as a result of preferential treatment granted to certain population by individuals in leadership roles. In a context where many researchers emphasize powerful exclusive social ties, this project is designed to examine the degree to which ethnic communities trust one another. It is expected that these relationships have been influenced by communal conflict, but, more importantly, research in the behavioral sciences has shown that social distance between populations can elevate the risk of future conflict within a society. Previous research has shown that all too often elections in African states are marred by political violence. Conflict can occur in the form of pre-election intimidation campaigns to stifle voter turnout, or as post-election retribution carried out by a group who feel victimized by accusations of ballot manipulation. This research contributes to scholarship on a pervasive social concern by applying a new and diverse suite of spatial methods to the Kenyan political landscape. Results of the project will provide insight into the dynamics of violence in Kenya at local scales and will also be able to characterize Kenya's social fabric as the 2012 election approaches.