SBE-RCUK: The Geopolitical Orientations of People in Borderland States

SBE-RCUK：边境国家人民的地缘政治取向

• 批准号: 1759645
• 负责人: John O'Loughlin
• 金额: $ 66万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-15 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1759645&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBE; RCUK; Geopolitical; Orientations; People

This research project will produce a detailed portrait of the geopolitical orientations of the populations in nine countries across the post-Soviet regions of Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The investigators will systematically explain the reasons for such orientations, including pro and anti-Russian and Western opinions, and they will assess the consistency of these orientations in the context of significant domestic political changes, regional economic disparities, sizable population movements and geopolitical shifts, and possible continuation or spreading of violent confrontations between Russian and Western-backed forces across the Eurasian region. The project will contribute to understanding the political dynamics of successor states of the former Soviet Union as they negotiate imperial legacies, economic interdependence, and dynamic geopolitical competition and change in the region. In contrast with standard international relations approaches, which tend to focus on elite politics within states and large state geopolitical competition over these states and contested separatist region, the project will focus on enhancing knowledge about the attitudes and beliefs of ordinary residents of these states. The increased understanding of the geopolitical orientations of residents along Russia's borderland states will provide valuable new insights to inform the development and conduct of foreign policy in the U.S. and other states. Project findings will help increase on-the-ground knowledge of domestic contexts of foreign-policy choices in regions at a time of polarization, suspicion, crisis, and uncertainty.Scholars, policy makers, and the public have increased interest in Russia's exercise of "soft power" (the expansion of its influence through persuasion and attraction rather than military or economic pressure) and other forms of power. The reaction to these efforts by the populations in non-Russian regions of the former Soviet Union has not been comprehensively or intensively measured, however. This project will examine how the geopolitical crisis that began with the Russian annexation of Crimea has reshaped the geopolitical outlook of the different populations in countries and disputed territories of the former Soviet Union that border Russia. Critical to the future of the region is the relative attractiveness of Russian, the West, and other states to domestic populations. The project will focus on the political attitudes and identifications of ordinary people, not state elites. The investigators who are collaborating in the conduct of this project are political geographers and political scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom who are experts in post-Soviet affairs. They will conduct a simultaneous set of public opinion surveys of nine independent states, four existing de facto republics in separatist regions, and two contested territories within Ukraine. The investigators will examine select media outputs across the former Soviet Union and will conduct two waves of a large public opinion survey of 15,000 respondents to gauge and understand geopolitical attitudes and orientations. They will employ a mixed-methods approach that combines the examination of cultural and news broadcasts in all the study sites and quantitative analysis of data from a two-wave survey panel. This award is made under the auspices of the NSF Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences-Research Councils of the United Kingdom (SBE-RCUK) Lead Agency Agreement.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究项目将在欧洲后苏联，高加索地区和中亚的九个国家中详细描述人口的地缘政治取向。 调查人员将系统地解释这种取向的原因，包括专业和反俄罗斯和西方的观点，他们将在重大的国内政治变化，区域经济差异，庞大的人口运动以及地缘政治变化以及可能的持续或可能持续的俄罗斯和西方人对俄罗斯和西方群体之间的暴力对抗的持续或延伸。 该项目将有助于理解前苏联继任国家的政治动态，因为他们谈判帝国遗产，经济相互依存以及该地区动态的地缘政治竞争和变化。 与标准的国际关系方法相反，国际关系方法倾向于集中在各州内的精英政治以及对这些州的大型州地缘政治竞争以及有争议的分离主义地区，该项目将着重于增强对这些州普通居民的态度和信念的知识。 对俄罗斯边境国家居民的地缘政治取向的越来越多的理解将提供有价值的新见解，以告知美国和其他州的外交政策的制定和行动。 项目的发现将有助于在两极分化，怀疑，危机和不确定性的情况下，在区域内对外国政策选择的国内背景进行实地知识。Scholars，政策制定者和公众对俄罗斯行使“软权力”的兴趣增加（通过其影响力和吸引力，而不是军事或经济压力来扩大其影响力，而不是军事或经济压力）和其他形式的力量）。 但是，尚未对前苏联的非俄罗斯地区对这些努力的反应进行全面或深入的衡量。 该项目将研究以克里米亚吞并的地缘政治危机是如何重塑了国家和前苏联与俄罗斯的前苏联地区不同人口的地缘政治前景。 该地区未来至关重要的是俄罗斯，西方和其他州对国内人口的相对吸引力。 该项目将重点关注普通百姓的政治态度和认同，而不是国家精英。 从事该项目进行合作的调查人员是美国和英国后苏联事务专家的政治地理学家和政治科学家。 他们将同时对九个独立国家，分离主义地区的四个现有共和国以及乌克兰的两个有争议的领土进行一系列公众舆论调查。 调查人员将检查整个前苏联的精选媒体产出，并将对15,000名受访者进行两次大规模舆论调查，以衡量并了解地缘政治态度和方向。 他们将采用一种混合方法方法，结合对所有研究地点的文化和新闻广播的检查以及两波调查小组中数据的定量分析。 该奖项是根据NSF社会，行为和经济科学研究委员会（SBE-RCUK）领导机构协议的主持人颁发的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准来通过评估来通过评估来支持的。

项目成果

Politicizing Memory: Evidence from Ukraine

将记忆政治化：来自乌克兰的证据

• DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2024.2316037
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Problems of Post-Communism
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Bakke, Kristin M.;Rickard, Kit;O’Loughlin, John;Toal, Gerard
• 通讯作者: Toal, Gerard

Support for Vladimir Putin in Russia's neighbors: Survey evidence from an endorsement experiment in six post-Soviet countries

俄罗斯邻国对弗拉基米尔·普京的支持率：来自六个后苏联国家的支持实验的调查证据

• DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.103014
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Political Geography
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: O'Loughlin, John;Linke, Andrew M.;Toal, Gerard;Bakke, Kristin M.
• 通讯作者: Bakke, Kristin M.

How reliable are polls in Wartime Ukraine

战时乌克兰的民意调查有多可靠

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: PONARS Policy Memo
• 作者: Rickard, K;Bakke, K;Toal, G;O'Loughlin, J
• 通讯作者: O'Loughlin, J

Perceptions of the past in the post-Soviet space

后苏联时代对过去的看法

• DOI: 10.1080/1060586x.2023.2170153
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Post-Soviet Affairs
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Bakke, Kristin M.;Rickard, Kit;O'Loughlin, John
• 通讯作者: O'Loughlin, John

The geopolitical orientations of ordinary Belarusians: survey evidence from early 2020

普通白俄罗斯人的地缘政治取向：2020 年初的调查证据

• DOI: 10.1080/1060586x.2022.2030126
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Post-Soviet Affairs
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: O’Loughlin, John;Toal, Gerard
• 通讯作者: Toal, Gerard