SBE-RCUK: The Geopolitical Orientations of People in Borderland States

SBE-RCUK：边境国家人民的地缘政治取向

• 批准号: 1759645
• 负责人: John O'Loughlin
• 金额: $ 66万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-15 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1759645&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBE; RCUK; Geopolitical; Orientations; People

This research project will produce a detailed portrait of the geopolitical orientations of the populations in nine countries across the post-Soviet regions of Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The investigators will systematically explain the reasons for such orientations, including pro and anti-Russian and Western opinions, and they will assess the consistency of these orientations in the context of significant domestic political changes, regional economic disparities, sizable population movements and geopolitical shifts, and possible continuation or spreading of violent confrontations between Russian and Western-backed forces across the Eurasian region. The project will contribute to understanding the political dynamics of successor states of the former Soviet Union as they negotiate imperial legacies, economic interdependence, and dynamic geopolitical competition and change in the region. In contrast with standard international relations approaches, which tend to focus on elite politics within states and large state geopolitical competition over these states and contested separatist region, the project will focus on enhancing knowledge about the attitudes and beliefs of ordinary residents of these states. The increased understanding of the geopolitical orientations of residents along Russia's borderland states will provide valuable new insights to inform the development and conduct of foreign policy in the U.S. and other states. Project findings will help increase on-the-ground knowledge of domestic contexts of foreign-policy choices in regions at a time of polarization, suspicion, crisis, and uncertainty.Scholars, policy makers, and the public have increased interest in Russia's exercise of "soft power" (the expansion of its influence through persuasion and attraction rather than military or economic pressure) and other forms of power. The reaction to these efforts by the populations in non-Russian regions of the former Soviet Union has not been comprehensively or intensively measured, however. This project will examine how the geopolitical crisis that began with the Russian annexation of Crimea has reshaped the geopolitical outlook of the different populations in countries and disputed territories of the former Soviet Union that border Russia. Critical to the future of the region is the relative attractiveness of Russian, the West, and other states to domestic populations. The project will focus on the political attitudes and identifications of ordinary people, not state elites. The investigators who are collaborating in the conduct of this project are political geographers and political scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom who are experts in post-Soviet affairs. They will conduct a simultaneous set of public opinion surveys of nine independent states, four existing de facto republics in separatist regions, and two contested territories within Ukraine. The investigators will examine select media outputs across the former Soviet Union and will conduct two waves of a large public opinion survey of 15,000 respondents to gauge and understand geopolitical attitudes and orientations. They will employ a mixed-methods approach that combines the examination of cultural and news broadcasts in all the study sites and quantitative analysis of data from a two-wave survey panel. This award is made under the auspices of the NSF Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences-Research Councils of the United Kingdom (SBE-RCUK) Lead Agency Agreement.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究项目将详细描述欧洲、高加索和中亚后苏联地区九个国家人口的地缘政治取向。 研究人员将系统地解释这些取向的原因，包括亲俄和反俄以及西方的观点，并将在重大国内政治变化、地区经济差异、大规模人口流动和地缘政治变化以及俄罗斯和西方支持的力量之间可能持续或蔓延的暴力对抗的背景下评估这些取向的一致性。 该项目将有助于了解前苏联继承国的政治动态，因为他们谈判帝国遗产，经济相互依存，以及动态地缘政治竞争和该地区的变化。 与标准的国际关系方法相比，这些方法往往侧重于国家内部的精英政治和大国对这些国家和有争议的分离主义地区的地缘政治竞争，该项目将侧重于提高对这些国家普通居民的态度和信仰的了解。 对沿着俄罗斯边境国家居民地缘政治取向的进一步了解将为美国和其他国家外交政策的发展和实施提供有价值的新见解。 项目的研究结果将有助于增加对在两极分化、怀疑、危机和不确定性时期各地区外交政策选择的国内背景的实地了解。学者、政策制定者和公众对俄罗斯运用“软实力”（通过说服和吸引而不是军事或经济压力来扩大影响力）和其他形式的实力越来越感兴趣。 然而，前苏联非俄罗斯地区的民众对这些努力的反应尚未得到全面或深入的衡量。 该项目将研究俄罗斯吞并克里米亚引发的地缘政治危机如何重塑了与俄罗斯接壤的前苏联国家和有争议领土的不同人口的地缘政治前景。 对该地区未来至关重要的是俄罗斯、西方和其他国家对国内人口的相对吸引力。 该项目将侧重于普通人的政治态度和认同，而不是国家精英。 合作进行这一项目的调查人员是来自美国和联合王国的政治地理学家和政治科学家，他们是苏联解体后事务的专家。 他们将同时对9个独立国家、4个分离主义地区的现有事实上的共和国以及乌克兰境内的两个有争议的领土进行一系列民意调查。 调查人员将审查前苏联各地的选定媒体产出，并将对15，000名受访者进行两波大型民意调查，以衡量和了解地缘政治态度和取向。 他们将采用一种混合方法，将所有研究地点的文化和新闻广播检查与两波调查小组的数据定量分析相结合。 该奖项是在NSF社会、行为和经济科学-英国研究理事会（SBE-RCUK）牵头机构协议的支持下颁发的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Politicizing Memory: Evidence from Ukraine

将记忆政治化：来自乌克兰的证据

• DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2024.2316037
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Problems of Post-Communism
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Bakke, Kristin M.;Rickard, Kit;O’Loughlin, John;Toal, Gerard
• 通讯作者: Toal, Gerard

Support for Vladimir Putin in Russia's neighbors: Survey evidence from an endorsement experiment in six post-Soviet countries

俄罗斯邻国对弗拉基米尔·普京的支持率：来自六个后苏联国家的支持实验的调查证据

• DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.103014
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Political Geography
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: O'Loughlin, John;Linke, Andrew M.;Toal, Gerard;Bakke, Kristin M.
• 通讯作者: Bakke, Kristin M.

Perceptions of the past in the post-Soviet space

后苏联时代对过去的看法

• DOI: 10.1080/1060586x.2023.2170153
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Post-Soviet Affairs
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Bakke, Kristin M.;Rickard, Kit;O'Loughlin, John
• 通讯作者: O'Loughlin, John

How reliable are polls in Wartime Ukraine

战时乌克兰的民意调查有多可靠

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: PONARS Policy Memo
• 作者: Rickard, K;Bakke, K;Toal, G;O'Loughlin, J
• 通讯作者: O'Loughlin, J

Polling during wartime: Challenges and lessons from Ukraine

战时民意调查：乌克兰的挑战和教训

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: UNU WIDER Working Papers 2023
• 作者: Rickard, Kit;Toal, Gerard;Bakke, Kristin;O'Loughlin, John
• 通讯作者: O'Loughlin, John