IBSS: Analyses of Relationships Between Changing Environmental Conditions and Societal Conflict

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This interdisciplinary research project will focus on widespread claims that environmental change will lead to more conflict in vulnerable areas of the world, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. This project will provide scientific evidence about environmental effects related to violence across Africa south of the Sahara and will examine how environmental changes are affecting the lives of ordinary people. Conflict is not expected to be a direct result of rising temperatures, decreased and more variable rainfall, changes in vegetation, and other environmental factors. Instead; environmental change is expected to result in resource scarcities in countries whose response capacities are limited. Increasing competition among ethnic groups and communities over dwindling resources in the areas most affected can lead to growing disparities, population changes through migration, and controversy regarding resource distribution. Existing research is inconclusive regarding the scope of the effects of environmental change. While large-scale studies have shown rising levels of violence, some have argued that violence is linked to ongoing political, ethnic, economic, and governance factors. The researchers will use a model linking climate change and variability, ecological consequences, measures of social stability and instability, and possible outcomes that include adaptation and recourse to violence. They will study the relationships between environmental change and variability across the diverse regions of Africa south of the Sahara, and they will conduct a more focused examination of the situation in Kenya, which recently has experienced growing controversy regarding of resource distribution and increased levels of ethnic competition. Using data gathered from 1,500 respondents from different ecological regions of Kenya, the researchers will study the process of adaptation and response through the perspectives of the varied population across Kenya in the face of climate stressors, food-security challenges, ethnic relations, and political competition.This project will yield new perspectives, information, and insights regarding the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and the functioning of contemporary societies, including the ways that societies adapt and respond to change. This project's focus on Africa south of the Sahara will provide special insights into the socio-environmental dynamics in and prospects for a region considered by many to be a region significantly influenced by changes in climate, vegetation, and other environmental factors. This project will advance basic understanding of complex social and environmental system interactions, and it will contribute to consideration of policies, programs, and other measures designed to address problems like poverty, social tensions, and environmental degradation. This project is supported through the NSF Interdisciplinary Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (IBSS) competition.