RPGW: Incorporating Structural Response into the Prediction of Disturbance of a Competitive Dominant on Wave-Swept Rocky Shores

自然干扰通过改变资源、基质可利用性或物理环境，在生态系统的结构中起着重要作用。由于干扰的影响通常是异质的和局部的，非平衡状态在大多数生态系统中普遍存在。岩石潮间带已被证明是探索扰动和斑块动力学如何影响非平衡生态系统的一个很好的模型系统。这在一定程度上是由于岩石潮间带的扰动通常是由一个单一的物理因素主导的，即破碎波浪产生的水动力。最近，一种生物力学方法已经被开发出来，它可以预测岩石海岸上的物理扰动，作为时间和近海海洋的“波浪性”的函数。这种机制方法的初步测试是有希望的，表明这种方法可以成为理解波浪暴露的季节性和年度变化的生态后果的有价值的工具。生物力学方法中的一个关键参数是生物体相对于它所遇到的水动力的强度。有大量的研究表明，生物抵抗波浪作用的能力是根据流动环境而改变的。为了准确预测不断变化的环境中的扰动率，必须考虑到这种修正。这项研究将提供一个详细的机制，使这一物种在海浪冲刷的海岸上占据主导地位，并将提高我们预测这一生态重要物种的干扰率的能力。此外，这项研究允许预测贻贝对任何未来波浪气候变化的定量响应。鉴于目前的证据表明，在不久的将来，波浪暴露的增加可能会很普遍，这些估计可能会对我们预测气候变化的生态后果的能力形成一个有价值的测试。

Natural disturbances play a fundamental role in the structuring of ecosystems by altering resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment. Because the effects of disturbance are typically heterogeneous and patchy, non equilibrium states prevail in most ecosystems. The rocky intertidal zone has proven to be an excellent model system for the exploration of how disturbance and patch dynamics influence non equilibrium ecosystems. This is in part due to the fact that disturbance in the rocky intertidal is typically dominated by a single physical factor, the hydrodynamic forces generated by breaking waves. Recently, a biomechanical approach has been developed that predicts physical disturbance on rocky shores as a function of time and the `waviness` of the sea offshore. Preliminary tests of this mechanistic approach are promising, suggesting that such an approach can be a valuable tool for understanding the ecological consequences of seasonal and year to year variability in wave exposure. A critical parameter in the biomechanical approach is the strength of an organism relative to the hydrodynamic forces it encounters. There are numerous studies indicating that the ability of an organism to withstand wave action is modified in response to the flow environment. Such modifications must be taken into account in order to accurately predict rates of disturbance in changing environments. This study will provide a detailed understanding of the mechanics which allows this species to dominate wave swept shores, and will enhance our ability to predict the rate of disturbance of this ecologically important species. Furthermore, this study allows for the prediction of the quantitative response of mussels to any future shifts in wave climate. Given current evidence that increases in wave exposure may be common in the near future, these estimations are likely to form a valuable test of our ability to predict the ecological consequences of climate change.