(SGER) COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Hydrometeorological Analysis of the Spring Creek Flood of 1997-Fort Collins

1997年7月28日，科罗拉多州柯林斯堡的斯普林克里克流域发生了一场灾难性的洪水，一笔小额的探索性拨款被提议用于采用最先进的遥感技术和降雨/径流建模方法来研究洪水的气象学、径流和水利学。据估计，这次洪水仅给科罗拉多州立大学造成了5000万至1亿美元的损失。其他损失包括两个移动房屋被毁，许多房屋被淹，多人受伤，5人不幸死亡。这项拟议中的研究是康涅狄格大学、密苏里大学和普林斯顿大学的研究人员共同努力的结果。参与的研究人员在雷达降雨估计、水文标度和结合遥感数据的最先进的降雨/径流模型的开发方面拥有丰富的经验。本建议研究的目的是：(1)描述7月28日晚上导致该流域在不到3小时内降雨量超过11英寸的气象条件；(2)利用地面记录的降雨量，校准和验证由美国国家科学基金会资助的CSU-CHILL s波段双偏振研究雷达和位于科罗拉多州丹佛和怀俄明州夏安附近的两台WSR-88D NEXRAD雷达估算的雷达降雨量；(3)利用GIS收集整理流域特征和洪水数据；(4)利用降雨和流域特征数据，利用二维物理水文模型重建径流事件；(5)将二维径流模拟结果与使用更传统的SWMM和HEC-2方法进行洪水预警和水文设计的洪水模拟结果进行比较和对比。合作提议者在进行这项研究方面处于独特的地位，因为他们立即寻找并获得了与洪水相关的数据。此外，合作研究小组还对使用遥感输入的降雨/径流建模进行了大量的研究和开发。此外，两位提案人在柯林斯堡居住多年，与该地区有广泛的水文联系，对受洪水影响的地区非常熟悉。预计洪水的初步分析、建模和重现可以在不到3个月的时间内完成，并撰写一份关于洪水发生前和发生期间情况的总结报告和论文。在资金投入之前，将继续对建模工作进行额外的细化和修改。这一初步努力将使全国的注意力集中在导致这场风暴的水文气象条件上，并利用遥感降雨输入建立基于物理的分布参数径流模型的能力，以预测城市地区短时间的山洪暴发。这种新的洪水建模方法在降低生命和财产风险以及提高城市水文设计的准确性方面具有重要的潜力。

9732402 Ogden A small exploratory grant is proposed to employ advanced state of the art remote sensing and rainfall/runoff modeling approaches to examine the meteorology, runoff and channel hydraulics of the catastrophic flood which occurred on the Spring Creek drainage on July 28, 1997 in Fort Collins, Colorado. This flood resulted in an estimated 50 to 100 million dollars of damage to Colorado State University alone. Additional damages include the devastation of two mobile homes courts, flooding of numerous homes, multiple injuries and the unfortunate deaths of five people. The proposed study is a collaborative effort between researchers at the University of Connecticut, University of Missouri, and Princeton University. The researchers involved have extensive experience in radar-rainfall estimation, hydrologic scaling, and the development of state of the art rainfall/runoff models which incorporate remotely-senses data. The objectives of this proposed study are to (1) characterize the meteorological conditions which existed on the evening of July 28 leading to over 11 inches of rainfall in less than three hours on the watershed; (2) calibrate and verify radar-rainfall estimates from the NSF-funded CSU-CHILL S-band dual-polarization research radar, and the two WSR-88D NEXRAD radars located near Denver, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming, using surface recorded rainfall accumulations; (3) collect and organize watershed characteristic and flood data using GIS; (4) apply the rainfall and watershed characteristic data to recreate the runoff event using a two-dimensional, physically-based hydrologic model; and (5) compare and contrast the performance of two-dimensional runoff simulation results with a recreation of the flood using the more traditional SWMM and HEC-2 approaches for flood warning and hydrologic design. The collaborative proposers are uniquely positioned to perform this research because they immediately sought and obtained data relevant to the flood. Additionally, the c ollaborative research team has conducted a significant amount of research and development to rainfall/runoff modeling using remotely-sensed inputs. Furthermore, the two of the proposers lived in Fort Collins for many years, have extensive hydrologic contacts in the area, and are intimately familiar with the region affected by the flood. It is anticipated that the initial analysis, modeling and re-creation of the flood can be performed in less than 3 months leading to a summary report and paper on the conditions leading up to, and during the event. Additional refinement and modifications of modeling efforts will continue until funding is expended. This initial effort will garner and focus national attention on the hydrometeorological conditions which lead to this storm, and establish the capabilities of physically-based, distributed-parameter runoff models using remotely-sensed rainfall input for predicting short-duration flash floods in urban areas. This new flash-flood modeling approach to be evaluated has significant potential to reduce the risk of life and property, as well as improve the accuracy of hydrologic design in urban areas.