Ground Motion Prediction for Urban Earthquake Disaster Mitigation

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The objective of this research project is to develop methods for characterizing near-fault ground motion for use in engineering design and evaluation. The specific issues to be addressed include near-fault rupture directivity effects and basin edge effects. These two effects have been identified as principal causes of the damaging ground motions in the 1994 Northridge and 1995 Kobe earthquakes. This project involves a collaboration with Professor Irikura of Kyoto University and colleagues from several other Japanese research organizations, with whom the Principal Investigators have a long term collaborative relationship.Specific objectives include: (1) develop improved procedures for earthquake source characterization for use in the prediction of near-fault strong ground motion of future earthquakes; (2) develop improved procedures for simulating near-fault ground motions, including the effects of complex structure such as subsurface bedrock topography that cause basin edge effects; develop an improved representation of near-fault ground motion for use in engineering analysis and design, using time domain characteristics in conjunction with spectral characteristics. The last task involves collaboration with Professor Helmut Krawinkler of Stanford University.It is expected that this research will lead to: (1) reliable procedures, having a sound theoretical and empirical basis, for the generation of near-fault ground motions for use in practical design and evaluation; (2) an improved set of ground motion parameters with which to describe near-fault ground motions; and (3) an improved representation of near-fault ground motions; using sets of near-fault ground motion time histories and simplified near-fault pulses, for use in design.