Collaborative Research: Air-Sea Fluxes at High Wind Speeds with Application to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

理论和数值实验表明，热带气旋达到的强度是敏感的相对重要性的表面通量的动量和焓的风暴核心，但很少有人知道这样的通量在极高的风速。 根据中等风速下的观测结果推导出的地面交换系数的函数形式外推到强风，可以预测永远不会观测到大于名义热带风暴强度的风暴。 据推测，这一悖论可以解决的物理过程中影响表面通量在高风速的适当帐户。 解决这个问题需要理论，数值和实验室工作的多学科计划，以解决目前热带气旋模型中被忽视或处理不当的几个关键物理过程。 因此，来自四个机构（伍兹霍尔海洋研究所、罗得岛大学、马萨诸塞州理工学院和寒区研究与工程实验室）的主要研究人员组成了一个研究小组来进行这项研究。 具体而言，主要研究者将：1。通过理论分析和室内实验研究了再入式海雾对海-气焓交换的影响。进行一项理论和实验研究计划，旨在通过气泡产生海气热交换的定量估计;对波浪对海气动量交换的影响作出更好的估计，这项研究应导致对极高风速下的表面通量作出更好的表述。 这些公式将应用于数值天气预报模式，以提高热带气旋强度预报的准确性。

Theory and numerical experiments demonstrate that the intensity achieved by tropical cyclones is sensitive to the relative importance of surface fluxes of momentum and enthalpy in the storm core, yet very little is known about such fluxes in extremely high wind speeds. Extrapolation to high winds of the functional form of surface exchange coefficients deduced from observations at moderate wind speeds leads to the prediction that storms of greater than nominal tropical storm strength should never be observed. It is hypothesized that this paradox can be resolved by a proper account of the physical processes affecting surface fluxes at high wind speeds. Attacking this problem requires a multi-disciplinary program of theoretical, numerical and laboratory work in order to address several crucial physical processes that are neglected or poorly handled in present tropical cyclone models. Accordingly, Principal Investigators from four institutions (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, University of Rhode Island, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory) have formed a research team to perform this research. Specifically, the Principal Investigators will: 1. Investigate the effect of re-entrant sea spray on air-sea enthalpy exchange through theoretical analysis and laboratory experiments:2. Conduct a program of theoretical and experimental research designed to yield quantitative estimates of air-sea heat exchange by bubbles; and3. Produce better estimates of the effect of waves on air-sea momentum exchange.This research should lead to better formulations of surface fluxes in very high wind speeds. These formulations will be implemented in numerical weather prediction models to improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity prediction.