Space Weather Predictions at Big Bear Solar Observatory

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Abstract: ATM 00-76602Proposal Title: Space Weather Predictions at Big Bear Solar ObservatoryPrincipal Investigator: Haimin Wang, NJIT The investigators will use Big Bear Solar Observatory (California) and the Huairou Solar Observatory (China) vector magnetographs to measure shear properties of the photospheric magnetic field. The main effort is to derive the shear properties from data acquired, and to make the information widely available on a web site for use as a flare predictor. The investigators will also implement a 24-hour high-resolution and high-cadence network (California, China, Austria) to observe the Sun in the spectral line H-alpha, developing automatic monitoring for flux emergence and on-disk filament eruptions. These results will also be made available on a web site for use in space weather forecasting. This network will also be used to improve the classic "Bear Alerts" and make them more complete. Any of the three stations will be able to initiate an alert - yielding a duty cycle over 80%. The investigation will include a statistical study of the relation between filament eruptions and observed geomagnetic storms, and comparison of observations with a specific (Chen CME) model.